Pluggables first, new architecture later

中际旭创(300308)
    Innolight’s share price has experienced heightened volatility yesterday (down 5%on 4 Feb), driven by a combination of market concerns around NPO/CPOadoption, hyperscaler network roadmap evolution, upstream suppliers’ capacityexpansion, etc., prompting mgmt. to hold an investor Q&A session to addressthese issues. We believe the core investment theme remains intact thatpluggable modules will continue to dominate hyperscaler scale-out/scale-acrossdeployments through 2026-27E, with the Company retaining a structurallyirreplaceable role. Recent earnings from Lumentum (LITE US, NR) and Coherent(COHR US, NR) also reinforced a demand-driven industry backdrop, whilepractical constraints suggest that meaningful CPO adoption is unlikely beforelate-2027. Reiterate BUY on Innolight with TP unchanged at RMB707.
    Innolight's structural role in pluggable optical transceivers is intact,with optionality in NPO/CPO but no near-term displacement risk. Permgmt., high-speed pluggable modules continue to be the confirmeddeployment standard for hyperscaler scale-out/scale-across networks, withcustomer roadmaps clearly centered on 800G/1.6T through 2026-27E. Whilethe Company is actively engaged in NPO-like solutions or future CPOdevelopment, these efforts are complementary rather than substitutive,awaiting further reliability validation, serviceability, and ecosystem maturitywhich could all constrain early adoption, supporting our view that meaningfulCPO adoption is a late-2027 event instead of a 2026 risk.
    Upstream capacity expansion eases supply-chain constraints. Recentearnings from Lumentum and Coherent point to faster-than-expectedexpansion of upstream InP capacity, specifically EML and high-speed CWlasers, driven primarily by sustained demand from 800G and 1.6T pluggablemodules. Lumentum outlined a plan to expand InP capacity by ~40% by1H26E last year, noting that over 20% of this expansion has already beenrealized ahead of schedule, while Coherent indicated its InP wafer capacityexpansion, supported by a transition to 6-inch wafers, which is alsoprogressing faster than planned. Despite this accelerated ramp-up, neithercompany expects supply-demand balance to normalize in 2026-2027, asincremental capacity continues to be absorbed by end-market demand.Importantly, both companies characterized CPO as a constructive but stagedopportunity, reiterating that material contribution is unlikely before 2027 orbeyond.
    Maintain BUY on Innolight with TP unchanged at RMB707 (28x 2026EP/E). The Company's earnings preview showed a 108% YoY net profitincrease to RMB10.8bn (mid-point), in-line with our forecast of RMB10.9bn.Innolight remains the dominant supplier of 1.6T pluggable modules, withshipments set to accelerate through 2026-2027, while its SiPh solutions(already accounting for ~50% of 2025 shipments per mgmt.) will continue tosupport structural margin expansion. With order visibility extending into nearto-mid term, we see no structural risk in the company's earnings potential.

具备加速增长潜力的一体化CXO

康龙化成(300759)
    康龙化成成立于2004年，是中国最早布局一体化CXO的企业之一，现已发展成为具备国际认可度的中国CXO领军企业。公司为全球客户提供覆盖药物研发全生命周期的服务。凭借其端到端服务能力，公司有望充分受益于全球医药研发外包需求的持续增长。我们首次覆盖康龙化成，给予“买入”评级，目标价38.08元人民币。
    全球少有的一站式CXO服务平台。作为中国药物发现与临床前CRO服务领域的Top2企业，康龙化成已战略性拓展至小分子CDMO、临床开发、大分子及细胞与基因治疗（CGT）领域，成功构建覆盖药物研发全流程的一站式CXO平台。该模式可显著降低客户在不同研发阶段切换供应商所带来的运营风险、时间延误与成本损耗。在当前生物制药企业愈发重视研发效率、速度与可靠性的背景下，我们相信一站式CXO平台将持续在全球市场内享有显著的竞争优势。
    业务板块协同发展，构筑高韧性增长生态。1）实验室服务作为公司长期发展的基石，2024年新签订单同比增长超15%，2025年前三季度延续相似增长态势，为该板块提供稳健增长支撑；2）小分子CDMO与实验室服务高度协同。鉴于2024年已获取商业化阶段项目且当前管线中早期项目占比超95%，未来商业化生产需求有望加速释放。该板块2024年新签订单同比增长超35%，2025年前三季度增速约20%，已成为公司增长最快的业务板块；3）临床研究服务于2021年开始整合全球临床团队，当前该业务的人均创收及毛利率均低于同业水平，显示其运营效率存在显著提升空间；4）在全球复杂分子疗法研发需求快速上升的背景下，大分子与CGT业务板块有望在中长期为公司带来业务多元化与高附加值增长。
    受益于行业需求复苏。作为全球医药研发体系的深度参与者，康龙化成的业务表现与全球生命科学行业的宏观趋势高度关联。从融资与药企投入两大维度看，全球创新药研发需求在2H25已实现明显回暖。据医药魔方数据，2H25全球创新药融资额同比增长22.5%，其中中国同比激增215.4%。随着美联储有望延续降息周期，我们判断融资回暖趋势大概率延续至2026年。此外，全球Top10药企1H25合计研发投入同比增长5.3%，重回正增长轨道，头部Biotech公司研发支出亦趋于稳定，进一步夯实CXO行业需求基础。
    首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价38.08元人民币。预计公司2025E/2026E/2027E收入将分别同比增长14.2%/14.8%/16.3%，non-IFRS净利润同比增长12.3%/17.8%/18.7%。

A clear beneficiary of global AI infrastructure capex; remains our top pick in 2026

中际旭创(300308)
    2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with highAI exposure, with domestic industry leader Innolight delivering stellar 9M25results: Revenue and net profit soared 44%/90% YoY, while 3Q25 gross marginexpanded 9ppt to 43% from a year ago. Strong financials fueled a share pricerally, with Innolight’s stock surging 380%+ YTD as of Dec 11. Looking aheadinto 2026, we double down on AI as one of our key themes, underpinned by anunabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to highervalue solutions (i.e., 1.6T). We reiterate our BUY rating for Innolight and liftour TP to RMB707, driven by an upgraded hyperscaler capex outlook.
    Capex outlook: upward revisions in consensus continue. The US BigFour hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) ramped capexaggressively: US$230bn in 2024 (+55% YoY), US$259bn in 9M25 (+65%YoY), with 2025 full-year capex projected by Bloomberg consensus to reachUS$367bn (+59% YoY). Bloomberg consensus points to another 35% YoYgrowth in 2026, pushing capex to US$495bn. Despite a modest 14%consensus growth for 2027 and lingering AI bubble debates, we remain bullishthat AI infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with upward revisionpotentials: 2025 Big Four capex growth consensus was 33% in Jan andrevised to 59% in Nov. Historically, post-earnings quarterly adjustments haveconsistently lifted consensus estimates as spending visibility improves.
    Supply chain capacity expansion underway. Mgmt. previously flaggedtight supply of key optical components such as EMLs (electro-absorptionmodulated lasers). Although we expect the tightness to continue into 2026,we believe Innolight is well prepared for the challenges, given capacityexpansions of EMLs and rising SiPho adoptions: Lumentum to increaseunit output by 40% over the coming quarters, despite already being soldout through long-term agreements with downstream leaders.
    The US allowed the exports of Nvidia’s H200 to China on Dec 8: Acatalyst for next AI compute upcycle in China. Per Reuters, the H200delivers ~6x the performance as H20, lifting the compute ceiling for Chinesehyperscalers. This should translate into structurally higher requirements fornetworking components, with Innolight and other leading domestic AI infravendors standing out as key downstream beneficiaries of the highercompute baseline.
    Reiterate BUY on Innolight, with TP adjusted to RMB707, based on thesame 28x 2026E P/E, at a premium to historical 5-year avg (27x) given itsabsolute leadership in the optical transceiver industry. We revise up ourrevenue forecasts by 14% for 2026 on higher consensus capex fromprevious updates (21% upward revision in November). We also lift GPM to46.2% (vs. prior 44.3%), given a favorable mix shift towards 1.6T and risingadoption of SiPho and margin resilience given persist tightness of supplychain. Potential risks include lower capex, geopolitical uncertainties, andlower price due to competition.