具备加速增长潜力的一体化CXO

康龙化成(300759)
    康龙化成成立于2004年，是中国最早布局一体化CXO的企业之一，现已发展成为具备国际认可度的中国CXO领军企业。公司为全球客户提供覆盖药物研发全生命周期的服务。凭借其端到端服务能力，公司有望充分受益于全球医药研发外包需求的持续增长。我们首次覆盖康龙化成，给予“买入”评级，目标价38.08元人民币。
    全球少有的一站式CXO服务平台。作为中国药物发现与临床前CRO服务领域的Top2企业，康龙化成已战略性拓展至小分子CDMO、临床开发、大分子及细胞与基因治疗（CGT）领域，成功构建覆盖药物研发全流程的一站式CXO平台。该模式可显著降低客户在不同研发阶段切换供应商所带来的运营风险、时间延误与成本损耗。在当前生物制药企业愈发重视研发效率、速度与可靠性的背景下，我们相信一站式CXO平台将持续在全球市场内享有显著的竞争优势。
    业务板块协同发展，构筑高韧性增长生态。1）实验室服务作为公司长期发展的基石，2024年新签订单同比增长超15%，2025年前三季度延续相似增长态势，为该板块提供稳健增长支撑；2）小分子CDMO与实验室服务高度协同。鉴于2024年已获取商业化阶段项目且当前管线中早期项目占比超95%，未来商业化生产需求有望加速释放。该板块2024年新签订单同比增长超35%，2025年前三季度增速约20%，已成为公司增长最快的业务板块；3）临床研究服务于2021年开始整合全球临床团队，当前该业务的人均创收及毛利率均低于同业水平，显示其运营效率存在显著提升空间；4）在全球复杂分子疗法研发需求快速上升的背景下，大分子与CGT业务板块有望在中长期为公司带来业务多元化与高附加值增长。
    受益于行业需求复苏。作为全球医药研发体系的深度参与者，康龙化成的业务表现与全球生命科学行业的宏观趋势高度关联。从融资与药企投入两大维度看，全球创新药研发需求在2H25已实现明显回暖。据医药魔方数据，2H25全球创新药融资额同比增长22.5%，其中中国同比激增215.4%。随着美联储有望延续降息周期，我们判断融资回暖趋势大概率延续至2026年。此外，全球Top10药企1H25合计研发投入同比增长5.3%，重回正增长轨道，头部Biotech公司研发支出亦趋于稳定，进一步夯实CXO行业需求基础。
    首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价38.08元人民币。预计公司2025E/2026E/2027E收入将分别同比增长14.2%/14.8%/16.3%，non-IFRS净利润同比增长12.3%/17.8%/18.7%。

A clear beneficiary of global AI infrastructure capex; remains our top pick in 2026

中际旭创(300308)
    2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with highAI exposure, with domestic industry leader Innolight delivering stellar 9M25results: Revenue and net profit soared 44%/90% YoY, while 3Q25 gross marginexpanded 9ppt to 43% from a year ago. Strong financials fueled a share pricerally, with Innolight’s stock surging 380%+ YTD as of Dec 11. Looking aheadinto 2026, we double down on AI as one of our key themes, underpinned by anunabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to highervalue solutions (i.e., 1.6T). We reiterate our BUY rating for Innolight and liftour TP to RMB707, driven by an upgraded hyperscaler capex outlook.
    Capex outlook: upward revisions in consensus continue. The US BigFour hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) ramped capexaggressively: US$230bn in 2024 (+55% YoY), US$259bn in 9M25 (+65%YoY), with 2025 full-year capex projected by Bloomberg consensus to reachUS$367bn (+59% YoY). Bloomberg consensus points to another 35% YoYgrowth in 2026, pushing capex to US$495bn. Despite a modest 14%consensus growth for 2027 and lingering AI bubble debates, we remain bullishthat AI infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with upward revisionpotentials: 2025 Big Four capex growth consensus was 33% in Jan andrevised to 59% in Nov. Historically, post-earnings quarterly adjustments haveconsistently lifted consensus estimates as spending visibility improves.
    Supply chain capacity expansion underway. Mgmt. previously flaggedtight supply of key optical components such as EMLs (electro-absorptionmodulated lasers). Although we expect the tightness to continue into 2026,we believe Innolight is well prepared for the challenges, given capacityexpansions of EMLs and rising SiPho adoptions: Lumentum to increaseunit output by 40% over the coming quarters, despite already being soldout through long-term agreements with downstream leaders.
    The US allowed the exports of Nvidia’s H200 to China on Dec 8: Acatalyst for next AI compute upcycle in China. Per Reuters, the H200delivers ~6x the performance as H20, lifting the compute ceiling for Chinesehyperscalers. This should translate into structurally higher requirements fornetworking components, with Innolight and other leading domestic AI infravendors standing out as key downstream beneficiaries of the highercompute baseline.
    Reiterate BUY on Innolight, with TP adjusted to RMB707, based on thesame 28x 2026E P/E, at a premium to historical 5-year avg (27x) given itsabsolute leadership in the optical transceiver industry. We revise up ourrevenue forecasts by 14% for 2026 on higher consensus capex fromprevious updates (21% upward revision in November). We also lift GPM to46.2% (vs. prior 44.3%), given a favorable mix shift towards 1.6T and risingadoption of SiPho and margin resilience given persist tightness of supplychain. Potential risks include lower capex, geopolitical uncertainties, andlower price due to competition.

Stronger outlook in Apple upgrade cycle andLeoni/ODM synergies; Lift TP to RMB75.55

立讯精密(002475)
    We raise TP to RMB75.55 (25% upside) to reflect our more positive view oniPhone 17/ foldable cycle, stronger synergy from Leoni/ODM integration, and AIserver component pipeline (connectivity/thermal/power). We raise FY25-27EEPS by 0-19% to reflect FY25 guidance, enhanced synergy and better margin.We expect Luxshare to deliver 27% earnings CAGR over 2025-27E, driven by9%/54%/47% FY25-27E revenue CAGR from consumer electronics/automotive/communication segments. Trading at 25x/20x FY25/26E P/E after recentpullback, valuation is attractive in our view. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone17 shipment, auto client wins, and AI server component ramp-up.
    Beneficiary of Apple multi-product upgrade cycle. With a full coverageof Apple’s products (iPhone/Watch/AirPods/Mac/VisionPro), we believeLuxshare is well-positioned to benefit from strong execution and marketshare gains from Apple’s new product cycle in iPhone 17/foldable/20thanniversary edition and smart home/AI glasses during 2026-27E
    Synergies from consolidation of Leoni and Wingtech's ODM. Mgmt.highlighted that the integration process has exceeded expectations: 1)original targets for Leoni (e.g. NP breakeven in 2025, GPM to reach corp.avg.) will be achieved at least one year earlier, and 2) vertical integrationwith Wingtech ODM will enhance competitiveness and boost exposure tonon-Apple biz, particularly in PC segment targeting doubled sales over nextthree years.
    Strong AI server product pipeline. We believe Luxshare is makingprogress with design wins and share gains with core AI server products(high-speed connectivity/power/thermal). In particular, mgmt. remainsconfident that CPC will become mainstream connectivity solution in nearterm, and AC/DC products have achieved breakthrough with corecustomers.
    Upbeat FY25E guidance on iPhone 17 and better GPM. Luxshare guidedFY25E NP growth of 24-29% YoY, mainly driven by new iPhone models andbetter profitability from Leoni and Wingtech assets. 3Q25 GPM at 12.8%(+1.1ppt YoY/0.8ppt QoQ) was a positive surprise, thanks to higher-marginauto/communications segments and strong execution of new acquisitions.
    Multiple growth engines to drive re-rating; Raise TP to RMB75.55 Webelieve revenue mix shift to higher-growth, high-margin AI/auto segmentsalong with stronger Apple upgrade cycle will boost re-rating. We raise ourTP to RMB75.55, based on 10-year hist. avg. 25x FY26E P/E (vs prior 21x)for Apple cycle strength and strong execution of Leoni/ODM integrations.

AI需求推动季度业绩创新高；云厂商资本支出强劲，展望积极

中际旭创(300308)
    中际旭创季度业绩再次创下新高，公司三季度收入达102亿元人民币，同、环比分别增长57%、26%。受益于800G光模块出货带来的规模效应，以及硅光解决方案采用率提升，毛利率大幅提升至42.8%，较去年同期和上季度分别上升9.2、1.3个百分点。净利润激增至31亿元人民币，创历史新高，同、环比分别增长125%、30%。净利率提升至30.7%（去年同期和上季度分别21.4%和29.7%）。重申“买入”评级，目标价上调至591元人民币。
    800G出货强劲，叠加硅光技术渗透率提升共同推动毛利率创下新高，主要得益于产品结构的优化：800G光模块需求持续增长、1.6T产能稳步增加。同时，硅光技术在成本结构方面有优势，而硅光解决方案在800G和1.6T产品中的渗透率进一步提升，也推动利润率的持续向好。另外，生产良率的改善和效率的提升也推动利润率的上行。展望未来，管理层预计800G光模块的增长势头将继续，1.6T硅光产品预计在2026年初进入大规模量产阶段。
    公司的行业龙头地位将有效缓解原材料供应危机。管理层确认，自2024年以来，EML和CWL等关键上游元器件的供应持续紧张，但公司在全球光模块市场的龙头地位有望确保其原材料的供应。公司已提前与主要供应商锁定长期产能，以降低潜在的供应链风险。管理层预计，随着上游制造商产能的逐步扩张，当下的供应链瓶颈有望在明年上半年逐步得到缓解。
    大型云厂商对人工智能基础设施的资本支出扩张，确认了公司在中短期的增长前景。海外主要大型云厂商正持续加大对人工智能基础设施的投资，这为公司带来了强劲的需求红利。谷歌于近期上调了2025财年资本支出指引，从此前的850亿美元增加至910-930亿美元。Meta将其2025财年目标缩窄至700-720亿美元的区间高位。微软表示，虽然此前预期明年投资增速可能放缓，但目前看资本支出将继续扩张。这些大型云厂商对人工智能基础设施的持续投资，有望在未来推动公司销售额的进一步增长。
    重申"买入"评级，目标价上调至591元人民币，基于28倍2026年预测市盈率，高出5年历史平均市盈率1个标准差，主要是考虑到本轮强劲的云厂商资本开支扩展周期，以及公司在光模块市场上的领导地位。我们将公司2026年净利润预测上调52%，反映下游资本支出拉动公司收入预期的提升。主要风险：人工智能资本支出不及预期、地缘政治和关税的不确定性、供应链风险以及市场竞争加剧等。

三季度业绩表明AI周期全面启动，目标价上调至90元人民币

生益科技(600183)
    生益科技发布了强劲的2025年三季度业绩。公司收入达79亿元人民币（同/环比增长55%/12%），毛利率大幅提升至28.1%（去年同期/上季度分别为22.9%/26.9%）。净利润同/环比大幅增长131%/18%至10亿元人民币，推动净利率提升至12.8%（去年同期/上季度分别为8.6%/12.2%）。出色的业绩凸显了公司作为AI基础设施核心供应商的战略地位。我们预计公司2025/26年收入将同比增长41%/38%，净利润同比增长102%/79%。重申"买入"评级，目标价上调至90元人民币（基于2026年估值），上调盈利预测以反映公司在AI驱动下的强劲增长势头（本次为更强劲的上升周期）和利润率的持续改善。
    印制电路板：受益于AI服务器的强劲需求。子公司生益电子（688183CH，未评级）业绩创单季度新高，印刷电路板收入达31亿元人民币（同/环比增长154%/40%）。季度收入接近2023年全年水平（33亿元人民币），凸显了AI服务器市场对高层数HDI板的强劲需求。我们看到主要大型云厂商持续加大对AI基础设施的投资。作为AI供应链的主要受益者，我们预测生益电子全年印刷电路板收入将接近100亿元人民币（增长逾一倍），成为集团主要的增长引擎。
    覆铜板：在成本压力下稳健前行。覆铜板业务（含其他）实现收入49亿元人民币（同比增长23%，环比持平）。虽然面临铜价上涨（自7月以来伦敦金属交易所铜价上涨15%）带来的短期压力，但我们预计平均售价的上调将抵消成本通胀的大部分影响。我们预测2025年公司覆铜板收入将增长18%，并带动公司收入增长约41%。
    利润率：产品组合优化推动利润率的结构性提升。2025年前三季度，集团毛利率分别环比上升2.5/2.3/1.3个百分点，在三季度达到28.1%。这反映印刷电路板业务向高价值HDI产品的快速转变（生益电子三季度毛利率：33.9%，同/环比上升9.0/3.1个百分点）。我们预计随着潜在的价格调整，四季度利润率有望进一步改善，预计2025年公司毛利率为27.3%。
    重申"买入"评级，目标价上调至90元人民币，基于35倍2026年预测市盈率（此前为30倍2025年市盈率），接近其5年历史远期市盈率2个标准差以上的水平，主要由于：1）公司在AI上升周期中的结构性定位；2）印刷电路板业务盈利贡献的持续增长以及其相较覆铜板业务的估值溢价。我们将2025/26年收入预测上调1%/16%，净利润预测上调5%/46%，以反映公司强劲的增长和显著的利润率改善。主要风险包括：产能爬坡不及预期、市场竞争加剧、地缘政治风险升级等。

Record-high quarter driven by AI demand; Robust cloud capex underpins outlook

中际旭创(300308)
    Innolight delivered yet another record-breaking quarter,with revenue rising+57%/+26%YoY/QoQ to RMB10.2bn.Gross margin expanded sharply by+9.2/+1.3ppt YoY/QoQ to42.8%,driven by strong leverage from800Gtransceiver shipments and broader uptake of SiPh-based solutions.Net profitsurged+125%YoY/+30%QoQ to RMB3.1bn,also a record high,with netmargin reaching30.7%(vs.29.7%in2Q25and21.4%in3Q24).ReiterateBUY,with TP raised to RMB591.
    Strong800G shipments and rising SiPh adoption underpin record-high GPM.GPM expansion was mainly driven by a richer product mix,ledby sustained800G volume growth and the ramp of1.6T transceivers.Thebroader adoption of SiPh across both800G and1.6T product lines furtherlifted margins,given its inherently more favorable cost structure.Continuedyield improvement and higher production efficiency also contributed tomargin gains.Mgmt.expects800G momentum to remain solid,while1.6TSiPh transceivers are set to enter mass production in early-2026.
    Raw material tightness manageable given market leadership.Mgmt.acknowledged ongoing tightness in key upstream opticalcomponents such as EML and CWL since2024,but noted the company’sleading position in the global optical transceiver market enables it to securesufficient material supply for production needs.The company hasproactively locked in long-term capacity with major suppliers to mitigatepotential disruptions.Mgmt.expects the current supply constraints togradually ease by1H26as upstream manufacturers expand productioncapacity.
    Hyperscalers’expanding AI infrastructure capex reinforces near-tomedium-term growth for the company.Major overseas hyperscalerscontinue to scale investment in AI infrastructure,providing a strong demandtailwind for Innolight.Google recently guided CY25E capex of US$91–93bn(vs.US$85bn previously),while Meta raised its CY25E target to US$70-72bn.Microsoft also reiterated that capex will continue to grow despiteearlier expectations of moderation.This sustained hyperscaler spendingmomentum will further support the company’s sales in the coming quarters.
    Reiterate BUY,with TP raised to RMB591,based on28x2026E P/E,1SDabove5-year historical avg.P/E,justified by Innolight’s leadership in AIoptical transceivers market during this strong investment cycle.Our NPforecast for2026E is revised up by52%,reflecting higher revenueexpectations due to increasing capex.Key risks include lower-than-expected AI capex,geopolitical/tariff uncertainties,supply chain disruptionsand intensified competition,etc.