1Q26 in line; overseas and emerging businesses driving growth

迈瑞医疗(300760)
    Mindray reported1Q26revenue of RMB8.35bn(+1.4%YoY)and attributablenet profit of RMB2.3bn(-11.3%YoY),largely in line with our expectations.Overseas business remains the major growth driver with robust momentum inEurope and developing markets.Domestic business still faced near-termheadwinds from channel destocking in1Q26.We maintain our FY26E revenueforecast,expecting a return to positive domestic growth in2026E.
    Rapid overseas growth led by Europe and emerging markets.Overseasrevenue increased15.7%YoY to RMB4.45bn,representing53%of totalrevenue in1Q26.Revenue from Europe grew more than25%YoY,with keymarkets including the UK,France,Germany,and Italy delivering rapidgrowth as penetration into high-end accounts accelerated.Emergingmarkets also recovered,up15%YoY,with India and Mexico each growingmore than30%.By segment,overseas IVD(>20%YoY),PMLS(15%YoY),and medical imaging(>10%YoY)all reported strong growth.We expectdeepening localization and continued progress in high-end accounts to driveoverseas growth in2026E.
    Domestic business remained under pressure but is expected torecover in2026E.Domestic revenue declined11.1%YoY to RMB3.9bn in1Q26,primarily due to channel destocking in PMLS and MIS.However,domestic CLIA revenue increased by~10%YoY in1Q26despite VBP-related price pressure,driven by further penetration into large hospitalaccounts.Consequently,Mindray’s share in core IVD categories(CLIA,chemistry,coagulation)rose from10%in1H25to13%in1Q26,accordingto Mindray’s1Q26report.The MT8000TLA system completed over80installations in1Q26,which should support reagent pull-through goingforward.Moreover,domestic emerging businesses increased over18%YoYand accounted for23%of domestic revenue.While destocking in equipmentbusinesses(PMLS+MIS)may still weigh on near-term growth,thesesegments accounted for less than30%of domestic revenue.Therefore,weexpect domestic revenue to return to positive growth in2026E,supportedby IVD share gains,continued growth in emerging businesses,and aneasier comparison base.
    Emerging businesses grew rapidly.Revenue from emerging businessesreached RMB1.4bn in1Q26,up18.2%YoY.Notably,IVD and emergingbusinesses together accounted for nearly40%of overseas revenue andmore than70%of domestic revenue,highlighting steady progress inMindray’s shift toward recurring,consumables-based revenue mix.
    Maintain BUY.We maintain our FY26-28E earnings forecasts and deriveour target price of RMB204.54based on a9-year DCF model(WACC:9.1%,terminal growth:3.0%;both unchanged).

1Q26 results: a strong start driven by CDMO services

康龙化成(300759)
    RMB3.58bn and adj.non-IFRS attributable net profit increasing16.2%YoY toRMB406mn.1Q26revenue/adj.net profit accounted for21.8%/18.8%of our full-year estimates,largely in line with historical ranges.New orders in1Q26surgedover30%YoY,a significant acceleration from the14%YoY growth recorded in2025.Mgmt.maintained full-year revenue growth guidance of12%-18%.
    Demand accelerated in1Q26.Total new orders grew by>30%YoY in1Q26,including>20%and>50%YoY growth for lab services and small moleculeCDMO,respectively,both significantly outpacing their2025growth rates.This encouraging order momentum was primarily driven by:1)Successfulstrategic expansion with MNC clients,with1Q26revenue from Top20globalpharmaceutical companies soaring47.98%YoY;2)A recovery in domesticdemand,as revenue from Chinese clients grew43.4%YoY,coupled with astrong out-licensing trend where Pharmaron has been playing a critical role;3)Continued rapid revenue growth from new modalities;and4)The signingof a major DP(Drug Product)contract in the small molecule CDMO segment,alongside the progression of other pipeline projects into later stages.
    Strong demand in small molecule CDMO.The segment generated revenueof RMB866mn in1Q26,up25.0%YoY,significantly outperforming othersegments.Notably,the Company secured a commercial DP contract for EliLilly's oral small molecule GLP-1drug,Orforglipron,in1Q26.Serving over1,000projects annually with a broad coverage of promising targets andmolecules,Pharmaron is well-positioned to capture major manufacturingorders in the future.As current capacity is highly utilized,the Company willcontinue to advance the PhII construction at Shaoxing site and plan for newcapacity expansions.Mgmt.expects capex for2026to be~RMB3.0bn(+12.4%YoY),with a strategic focus on bolstering CDMO capacity for late-stage projects and new modalities.Based on current demand and capacityplanning,mgmt.expects the small molecule CDMO segment to consistentlyoutpace the Company’s overall growth in the coming years.
    Clinical services targeting loss reduction this year.Revenue from clinicalservices increased by11.8%YoY,accelerating from the7.1%YoY growth in2025.However,segment GPM came in at7.1%in1Q26,down4.7ppts YoY,primarily due to revenue mix changes and pricing competition in Chinamarket.Regarding new orders,SMO pricing has shown recoveries,whileCRO price pressure has moderated compared to last year.Nevertheless,given the long conversion cycle of clinical programs,the Company is stillexecuting low-priced orders secured last year.Mgmt.expects the segment toremain in a loss-reduction phase throughout2026,with performance likely toimprove next year as higher-priced orders set to be converted into revenue.
    Maintain BUY.Our DCF-based TP is maintained at RMB39.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%;both unchanged).We forecast Pharmaron’srevenue to grow by16.5%/16.2%/14.9%YoY and adj.net profit to increaseby18.8%/17.8%/16.1%YoY in2026E/27E/28E,respectively.

Transition pains persist; wait and HOLD

卓胜微(300782)
    Maxscend released its FY25results.Revenue declined by17%to RMB3.7bn(9%below BBG consensus and ours),while net loss was RMB293mn.GPMdeclined by13.8ppts to25.7%(1ppt below BBG consensus/6ppts below ours)due to1)low utilization rates at both6-inch(~50%)and12-inch(30-40%)fabs,2)an unfavorable product mix due to the delay in higher-margin module rampand a greater contribution from lower-value products,and3)increased rawmaterial costs driven by AI-related demand crowding.More fundamentally,theCompany remains in a transition phase toward a fab-lite model with elevateddepreciation and ramp inefficiencies continuing to pressure near-term earnings.Maintain HOLD on the Company with TP revised to RMB91,correspondingto45x2027E EV/EBITDA(rolled forward from45x2026E)to reflect thedelayed pace of margin normalization and earnings recovery.We lower oursales forecast for2026/27E by24%/27%,and GPM by8.7ppts/8.2ppts,reflecting intensified market competition and low fab utilization.
    Revenue mix gradually improving on L-PAMiD ramp,though stillbelow potential.We view L-PAMiD as the key driver of medium-termrecovery,given its successful entry into domestic tier-1supply chains andclear advantages in cost,size,and integration via bare-die packaging.InFY25,RF module mix increased to45%(from42%in FY24),althoughabsolute revenue declined11%YoY due to delayed ramp and supplyconstraints earlier in the year.Meanwhile,RF discrete revenue mix fell to52%(from56%),with revenue declining~22%YoY,reflecting both weakerend demand and pricing pressure in more commoditized segments.Weexpect mix to continue improving into2026on the back of L-PAMiD rampand increasing contribution from high-integration modules.
    1Q26earnings showed early signs of stabilization,but marginpressure persists.Revenue grew9%YoY to RMB828mn but declined14%QoQ due to seasonality,while GPM fell to18.5%(vs.31%in1Q25and22.8%in4Q25)in1Q26,reflecting continued low utilization,elevateddepreciation,and ongoing pricing pressure as the Company prioritizesshare gains.We expect revenue to gradually recover through2026on L-PAMiD ramp,but margin recovery will likely lag,with meaningfulimprovement contingent on utilization ramp and higher contribution fromcustomized higher-value modules.
    12-inch Xinzhuo fab a long-term strategic asset with limited near-termcatalysts.The fab has reached stable mass production with competitiveyields and supports key processes such as SOI(silicon on insulator)andheterogeneous integration,enabling internalization of high-value modules.While low utilization continues to weigh on margins,we see it driving long-term competitiveness and potential margin upside,with earningscontribution dependent on utilization ramp.
    Maintain HOLD with TP revised to RMB91,corresponding to rollover2027E EV/EBITDA of45x(prev.45x2026E EV/EBITDA)as we expect salesto stabilize on L-PAMiD ramp while profitability remains constrained by lowutilization and elevated depreciation,both of which are unlikely to materiallyimprove within2026.However,we think the Company deserves a premiumto peers due to its unique positioning as a vertically integrated,full-stackRFFE player while most other peers remain fabless or partially integrated.Upside risks:Improving end market demand,raw material price reduction,etc.;downside risks:Worsening end market demand,R&D challenges,etc.

Strong 2025 results driven by overseas expansion and domestic share gains

联影医疗(688271)
    United Imaging (UIH) reported strong 2025 results. Revenue rose 34.0% YoY toRMB13.8bn, 4% above our estimate, while attributable net profit increased 48.1%YoY to RMB1.9bn. In 1Q26, revenue grew 17.3% YoY to RMB2.9bn, slightlymissing our expectation, accounting for 17% of our full-year forecast (vs. thehistorical average of ~20%). We therefore lower our 2026E revenue growthforecast from 25.7% to 22.5% YoY, although our absolute revenue estimateincreases by 1.4% on a higher base in 2025.
    Overseas expansion remains the key growth driver. Overseas revenuerose 51.4% YoY to RMB3.4bn in 2025, driven by strong growth across majorregions, including North America (+56% YoY), Europe (+50% YoY), and APAC(+41% YoY). Momentum remained solid in 1Q26, with overseas revenue up~27% YoY to approximately RMB710mn. In our view, the strong performancewas driven by continued progress in high-end products such as PET/CTs andMRs, as well as improving global sales and service network. Overseas servicerevenue grew ~53% YoY in 2025. With rising brand recognition and increasingpenetration into high-end customers, we expect overseas revenue to maintainrobust growth in 2026E.
    Domestic growth was driven by market share gains. Domestic revenuegrew 29.1% YoY to RMB10.4bn in 2025, with UIH ranking No.1 in newinstallations across multiple products, including CT, MR, MI and RT. Sharegains were particularly notable in MR (+6.4ppts), RT (+18.1ppts), and PET/CT(+13.5ppts). Looking ahead, equipment renewal projects are continuing to rollout. With the implementation experience in 2025, we expect the execution toaccelerate and continue to support hospital procurement demand. However,the domestic market for medical imaging equipment declined 21.1% YoY in1Q26, according to MDDi. Therefore, we believe that UIH’s revenue growth willface tougher comparisons in 2H26E given the lags between tender wins andrevenue recognition.
    Near-term GPM headwinds partially offset by favorable product mix. GPMdeclined 1.5ppts/2.8ppts YoY to 47.0%/47.2% in 2025/1Q26, respectively,mainly due to domestic VBPs, tariffs and higher liquid helium costs.Encouragingly, blended ASP increased by more than 20% YoY in 2025, drivenby a richer mix of high-end systems. For example, revenue from 3.0T-andabove MR systems grew over 60% YoY and accounted for over two thirds oftotal MR revenue in 2025. Service revenue, which carries higher GPM thanequipment sales, rose 26% YoY and accounted for 12.4% of total revenue in2025. We believe that the mix shift toward high-end systems and servicesshould help partially offset pressure from VBPs, tariffs, and elevated liquidhelium costs. More diversified helium sourcing and greater in-house productionof key components should also support margin improvement.
    Maintain BUY. We remain positive on UIH’s long-term growth. However, welower our 2026-28E earnings forecasts to factor in VBP pressure and elevatedliquid helium costs in the near term. We therefore lower TP to RMB161.04based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%, terminal growth: 4.0%)

1Q OPAT a slight beat; positive outlook for full-year NBV and life OPAT acceleration

中国平安(601318)
    Ping An posted solid1Q results,with Group OPAT up7.6%YoY to RMB40.8bn,outpacing our estimate of RMB39.2bn(link).This increase can be attributed to1)aresilient L&H OPAT uptrend(+4.6%vs CMBI est:+4.5%);2)PAB profit turnaround(+3.0%);and3)a notable surge in AM profitability(+193.3%).Group NPAT fell7.4%YoY to RMB25bn,slightly better than our estimate of RMB24.3bn,due to heightenedmarket headwinds in1Q26.Group net asset value(NAV)grew1.8%from year-startto RMB1.02tn,in line with our forecast.Life NBV grew20.8%YoY to RMB15.6bn(vs.CMBI est:RMB15.4bn),primarily driven by new business sales(+45.5%YoY)partially offset by a softening margin(-4.8pct YoY).P&C UW performance was abeat,with COR down0.8pct YoY to95.8%and non-auto premium rising19.5%YoY,which exceeded the industry average growth of5.3%YoY in1Q26.Mgmt.mentioned in the call that achieving double-digit NBV growth in2026E is abaseline target,and we are positive on a high-teens NBV uptick and life OPATacceleration in2026E as CSM approaches an inflection point.Maintain BUY,with our SOTP-based H/A-share TP at HK$86/RMB75,implying0.83x FY26E P/EV.
    1Q OPAT a slight beat,driven by L&H/PAB/AM.Group OPAT growth in1Q26was mainly driven by increases in Life&Health(+4.6%),Ping An Bank(+3.0%)andAM(+193.3%).L&H OPAT growth was broadly in line with our forecast,with newbusiness CSM likely to achieve a promising rise amid stable interest rates.Thebanking business returned to positive growth,driven by1)a stabilized NIM(1Q26:1.79%vs FY25:1.78%),and2)non-interest income growth from wealthmanagement and bond investments.AM OPAT amounted to RMB3.2bn in1Q26,nearly tripling from1Q25,thanks to upside from brokerage and asset managementbusinesses amid heightened equity volatility,which bolstered trading activity.Wemaintain our view that continued easing of the AM drag and expected LifeOPAT acceleration should drive the Group’s valuation re-rating over time.
    L&H OPAT in-line;NBV rose on higher new business sales.Life NBV grew20.8%YoY to RMB15.6bn,driven by strong new policy sales(+45.5%)partiallyoffset by a4.8pct YoY decline in margin to23.5%.Mgmt.noted that this margincontraction was not due to product or channel skewness,but rather the fact thatthe comparable1Q25figures were not adjusted for changes in actuarialassumptions.Overall,NBV margin stood stable vs.the year-start level of23.4%.Bancassurance was the leading channel for NBV growth,with its contribution(together with community finance)rising6.8pct YoY to31%in1Q26.Agentheadcount declined5.4%from year-start to0.33mn,partly due to seasonality.Weexpect NBV to reach high-teens YoY growth in2026E led by new biz sales.
    P&C underwriting beat;OPAT weighed by investment.P&C COR improved0.8pct YoY to95.8%in1Q26,better than our estimate of96.1%,due to lowerNAT CAT claims and continued expense rate controls across non-auto insurancelines.Total premium rose6.8%YoY to RMB91bn,with auto insurance down0.6%YoY to RMB53bn and non-auto up19.5%YoY to RMB38bn in1Q26.Per mgmt.,non-auto premium growth was mainly driven by health insurance.UW profit grew28.4%YoY to RMB3.5bn,but this was partially offset by a decline in investmentreturns,resulting in a13.4%YoY decrease in P&C OPAT in1Q26.
    Maintain BUY with TP of HK$86/RMB75.The stock is trading at0.6x FY26E P/EVand0.8x FY26E P/B.We are positive on the prospect of Ping An’s core businessimprovement,including1)Life OPAT acceleration in2026E as CSM approachesthe inflection;2)PAB profit enhancement;and3)ongoing progress on AM de-risking.Maintain BUY with our SOTP-based TP at HK$86(H-share,unchanged)and RMB75(A-share,added),implying0.83x FY26E P/EV and1.2x FY26E P/B.

Sustainability of growth remains to be seen

浙江鼎力(603338)
    Dingli’s share price surged 10% yesterday (28 Apr) following better-thanexpected 1Q26 results (strong revenue growth + QoQ gross marginimprovement + lower expense). Take a closer look at the results, however, couldfind it difficult to conclude that the high growth is sustainable. First, we believethe revenue growth in 1Q26 (30% YoY) included part of the US tariff passthrough. Second, the decline in SG&A expense ratio (through efficiencyenhancement of the US subsidiary) has lasted for several quarters, setting a lowbase for upcoming quarters. We revise up our 2026E/27E earnings forecasts by3%/6%, due to higher sales volume assumptions (slightly offset by lower financeincome). Our TP is revised up to RMB59 (from RMB48), based on 14x 2026 P/E(0.5 SD below the three-year average P/E unhanged). We maintain our HOLDrating for now until we see a more sustainable growth trend.
    1Q26 results highlights. Revenue grew 30% YoY to RMB2.46bn. Grossmargin contracted 6.8ppts YoY but expanded 5.2ppts QoQ to 33.8% (note: 2-month US tariff impact in 1Q26 before the court’s ruling to halt). Given thatboth the SG&A and R&D expense ratio dropped YoY in 1Q26, EBIT grew 38%YoY to RMB609mn. Net finance expense was RMB82mn (vs net financeincome of RMB93mn in 1Q26), due to appreciation of RMB. Net profit grew6% YoY to RMB453mn, while operating cash outflow improved 61% YoY toRMB186mn.
    Latest Anti-dumping (AD), countervailing duties (CVD) and tariff: The USlatest AD rate on Dingli is set at 18.27% (effective from 16 Apr 2026), with arate same as Sinoboom, Terex (Changzhou) Machinery (owned by Terex [TEXUS, NR]) and Oshkosh JLG (Tianjin) Equipment (owned by Oshkosh [OSKUS]). The latest AD, together with the CVD (33.1%) and Section 301 tariff(25%), adds up to a total rate of ~76% for Dingli’s AWPs selling into the US.We think such level of rate is still manageable given Dingli’s rich experience indealing with tariff and duties.
    Upside risks: (1) recovery of AWP demand; (2) strong demand for newproducts.
    Downside risks: (1) further intensified competition in China’s AWP market;(2) additional tariff/AD/CVD.

1Q26 results: small molecule D&M fuelling overall growth

药明康德(603259)
    WuXi AppTec released better-than-expected 1Q26 financial results. Revenuegrew by 28.8% YoY to RMB12.4bn with continuing operations revenue increasingby 39.4% YoY, while adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit surged 71.7% YoY toRMB4.6bn. 1Q26 revenue/ adj. net profit represent 24.1%/ 25.6% of our full-yearforecasts, respectively, significantly higher than the historical average of 18-20%.As of 1Q26, backlog for continuing operations grew by 23.6% YoY (+29% YoY ifexcl. FX fluctuations) to RMB59.8bn, with new orders signed in 1Q26 growing byover 25%. Mgmt. maintained full-year guidance, projecting 2026 revenue to reachRMB51.3-53.0bn, with revenue from continuing operations to grow by 18-22%YoY. Adj. net profit margin is expected to remain stable. Mgmt. indicated plans toraise the guidance in due course based on future business developments.
    CRDMO model to capture global blockbuster opportunities. Within thismodel, drug discovery and development services continuously funnel projectsto downstream. The Company delivered +420,000 new compounds over thepast 12 months, converted 83 projects from R to D, and added nine new PhIIIand commercial projects in 1Q26. This funnel model, which covers a widerange of therapeutic areas and a large customer base globally, allows theCompany to identify industry trends and build capacity in advance. As aresult, this approach has enabled WuXi AppTec to capitalize on commercialopportunities for multiple global blockbuster products, including oral COVID-19 drugs and peptides/ small-molecule GLP-1 drugs. Benefiting from oralGLP-1 drugs, revenue from small molecule D&M surged by 80.1% YoY in1Q26, creating a new growth engine for the Company. As a natural extensionof CRDMO model, TIDES saw 1Q26 revenue growth impacted by the pacingof product deliveries, resulting in a modest 6.1% YoY increase. However,based on a robust backlog, mgmt. expects full-year revenue for this segmentto grow by ~40%, reflecting mgmt's confidence in the TIDES business.
    Continued capacity expansion. Driven by growing global demand, WuXiAppTec plans to bring the construction of new Changzhou site ahead ofschedule, which will house both small molecule and TIDES capacity. Mgmt.targets the total solid-phase synthesis reactor volume to reach 130k liters bythe end of 2026, up from 100k liters at the end of 2025. Despite theuncertainties from the Middle East, the strategic cooperation agreementsigned with the Saudi government last Oct is proceeding as planned, a keycomponent of the Company's long-term strategy to build global capabilitiesand capacity. Mgmt. forecasts 2026 capex to be RMB6.5-7.5bn, representinga YoY increase of 17.3-35.4%. We believe that WuXi AppTec's mature globalCRDMO network and ongoing expansions will further reinforce its leadingposition in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing industry.
    Maintain BUY. To factor into the strong momentum of small molecule D&Mbusiness, we lift our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 15.2%/16.3%/ 14.8% YoY (for continuing operations: 20.6%/ 16.3%/ 14.8% YoY)and adj. net profit to grow by 26.2%/ 18.0%/ 15.8% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB133.00 toRMB143.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged).

Overseas, R&D support 1Q26 earnings resilience

比亚迪(002594)
    Maintain BUY.BYD’s1Q26average selling price(ASP)and GPM both beatour prior forecast with overseas contribution,which echoed our previous reporttitled“overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26”(link).We expectFY26E GPM to sustain,as we estimate overseas vehicle GPM could be6-8ppts higher than that in China.BYD also becomes more prudent on expenses,especially on R&D,which could provide earnings resilience with highercapitalization ratio.We still believe BYD is one of the biggest beneficiaries fromhigh oil price.
    1Q26revenue,GPM beat on overseas.BYD’s1Q26revenue fell by12%YoY amid a sales volume decline of30%YoY,or13%higher than our priorforecast,as overseas accounted for46%of BYD’s total sales volume in1Q26.That also lifted its GPM by1.4ppts QoQ to18.8%,0.3ppts higherthan our forecast.R&D expenses were more disciplined than we hadprojected while forex loss was higher than expected.All combined resultedin a net profit of RMB4.1bn in1Q26,or about RMB0.7bn higher than ourforecast.
    BYD’s overseas potential could still be underestimated.We estimatethat BYD’s overseas vehicle GPM could be6-8ppts higher than that inChina,based on1Q26and4Q25data with assumptions of minimal QoQchanges in ASPs and GPMs.We maintain our FY26E total sales volumeforecast of5mn units but revise up overseas sales volume by0.1mn unitsto1.6mn units.Accordingly,we raise our FY26E revenue forecast by2%.We also believe higher sales volume from overseas could sustain BYD’sFY26E GPM,despite raw-material price hike and heavy capex.We projectFY26GPM to only narrow by0.1ppt YoY to17.6%.
    R&D capitalization provides earnings resilience.We estimate that R&Dcapitalization ratio rose to about17%in1Q26from9%in FY25,which wasone of the reasons for the net profit beat.As we noted a few times before,BYD’s low R&D capitalization ratios in the past four years have minimizedits amortization burden in the future,which could provide its earningsresilience.We raise its FY26/27E R&D capitalization ratio assumptionsfrom7%/7%to15%/12%.Accordingly,we revise up FY26/27E net profitforecasts by4%/6%to RMB37.9bn/46.3bn.
    Valuation/Key risks.We maintain our BUY rating and A/H share targetprice of HK$125/RMB125,based on22x(prior23x)our FY27E P/E,toreflect the recent market volatility.Key risks to our rating and target priceinclude lower sales volume or margins than we expect,as well as a sectorde-rating.

Robust overseas momentum and domestic

南微医学(688029)
    A solid 2025; 1Q26 revenue slightly ahead of expectations. In 2025, MicroTech reported revenue of RMB3.2bn (+15.5% YoY) and attributable net profit ofRMB570mn (+3.1% YoY). Its 1Q26 revenue grew 22.1% YoY to RMB854mn,slightly beating our expectations and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast(vs. the historical average of 21%). Attributable net profit declined 9.0% YoY toRMB146mn primarily dragged by FX losses. Given the strong growth ofoverseas business and potential recovery of domestic business, we raise our2026 full-year revenue growth estimates from 11.4% to 15.9%.
    Overseas business remained the primary growth engine. In 2025,overseas revenue increased 40.9% YoY to RMB1.9bn. Excluding theRMB267mn contribution from subsidiary CME, organic overseas growthremained solid at ~21%. This strong momentum persisted in 1Q26, withoverseas revenue up 28.2% YoY, lifting its revenue contribution from 60%in 2025 to 61% in 1Q26. We believe the acquisition of CME and CONMED’s(CNMD US, NR) GI endoscopic consumable product lines will significantlyenhance Micro-Tech’s direct sales footprint in US and European markets.We continue to view the direct sales capability as a critical competitive moatfor its rapid overseas growth. Additionally, the January 2026 launch of theThailand manufacturing center should further enhance its global deliveryefficiency and supply chain resilience.
    Domestic market showed signs of recovery. While 2025 domesticrevenue declined 9.6% YoY to RMB1.25bn due to the VBPs, 1Q26 domesticrevenue recovered with a 13.6% YoY growth. Notably, domestic sales of GIproducts grew ~25% YoY in 1Q26. Despite the ongoing VBPs inGuangdong and Zhejiang provinces, we believe the marginal policy impactis weakening, driven by the rapid growth of innovative products. In our view,Micro-Tech’s domestic business has shown signs of bottoming out.
    Innovative products contributed meaningful incremental growth.Revenue from innovative products (including visualization business) grewover 40% YoY in 2025, accounting for 8% of total revenue. In 1Q26, revenuefrom innovative products increased 65% YoY, expanding their revenueshare to 10.6%. With domestic channel inventory for single-use endoscopeslargely digested and strong global growth, we expect visualization businessto maintain robust momentum in 2026E. Overall, we see the continued rampof the innovation portfolio and overseas expansion as effective offsets todomestic VBP pressure.
    Maintain BUY. Given the slight 1Q26 revenue growth beat, we raise our2026E–2028E revenue forecasts. Accordingly, we raise our target price toRMB97.38 based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth:2.0%; both unchanged).

1Q26 EBIT +34% YoY above expectation; net profit dragged by FX loss

恒立液压(601100)
    Hengli’s 1Q26 net profit came in at RMB653mn, which increased only 6% YoYlargely due to the recognition of net finance expense (RMB162mn vs net financeincome of RMB199mn in 1Q25) as a result of the appreciation of RMB. EBITgrew 34% YoY to RMB775mn, driven by an impressive revenue growth of 33%YoY. Meanwhile, operating cash inflow in 1Q26 surged 9x YoY from a low baseto RMB518mn. We see these as a set of decent operating results. We think FXvolatility is normal and believe it should not affect the core valuation of Hengli.Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RMB109, based on 42x 2026E P/E(+1SD above the historical average unchanged, to reflect the machinery upcycleand humanoid robot components growth).
    Risk factors: (1) Slowdown of demand for hydraulic components; (2)slower-than-expected new business development.

New-model sales as key after 1Q26 solid GPM

长城汽车(601633)
    Maintain BUY.Great Wall’s1Q26GPM beat our prior forecast despite industryheadwinds,which gives us more confidence in its FY26-27E GPM.We are ofthe view that the chance of rolling out a competitive new model for Great Wallis increasing given its planned12new models this year.
    1Q26core profit largely in line,GPM beat.Great Wall’s1Q26revenuerose13%YoY amid a sales volume growth of5%YoY,or4%lower thanour prior forecast.GPM widened by0.6ppts YoY to18.5%in1Q26despiterising raw-material costs,0.7ppts higher than our forecast.SG&A and R&Dexpenses were largely in line with our projection.Recycling feereimbursement in Russia was at a slower pace than we had expected,which resulted in a net profit of RMB945mn in1Q26,in line with ourforecast excluding Russia’s recycling fee reimbursement.
    We turn more positive on GPM in FY26-27E.Great Wall’s GPM beat ourforecasts by two quarters in a row,which gives us more confidence in itsfull-year margins despite rising raw-material costs.We project its FY26GPM to widen by0.1ppts YoY to18.1%,aided by rising exports,the newplatform Guiyuan and better product mix.We expect the cost reductionefforts from the new platform to be more apparent in FY27E with more newmodels.Therefore,we project FY27E GPM to be17.9%despite a morecompetitive industry landscape.
    Possible positive surprise from a plethora of new models.Great Wallplans to roll out about12new models in FY26E,the same amount as FY24and FY25combined.Although we are of the view that Great Wall is stilloptimizing its model line-up after the lessons from the Wey Lanshan,Gaoshan and Ora5,the chance of having a more competitive new modelis increasing.We project its FY26E sales volume to rise10%YoY to1.45mn units,largely driven by Wey.We expect Wey and Ora to furtherdrive FY27E sales volume higher to1.6mn units.
    Valuation/Key risks.We cut our FY26E net profit forecast by13%toRMB10.2bn with slightly lower sales volume,higher selling expenses andlower other income assumptions.We raise our FY27E net profit by4%toRMB11.8bn as new model effect could be more apparent next year.Wemaintain our BUY rating and H-share target price of HK$19.00,based on12x FY27E P/E(prior12x FY26E P/E).Our A-share target price ofRMB28.50is based on Great Wall’s average A/H premium of70%over thepast six months.Key risks to our rating and target price include lower salesvolume and margins than we expect,as well as a sector de-rating.

4Q25 earnings miss on gross margin and FX loss; But structural growth outlook still intact

恒立液压(601100)
    Hengli’s net profit in 4Q25 dropped 10% YoY to RMB647mn, which is 10%/5%below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates. The major deviation came from (1)a lower-than-expected gross margin (-6.11ppts YoY to 40.6%) due to highersales of non-excavator component products; and (2) a RMB206mn net financeexpense due mainly to fx loss (appreciation of RMB). That said, we are stayingpositive on Hengli as we expect continuous penetration into differentdownstream segments, as well as the structural growth outlook of humanoidrobots. We slightly revise up our 2026E/27E earnings forecasts by 1%/4%, dueto higher revenue and lower expense ratio assumptions. We slightly revise upour TP to RMB109 (from RMB105), based on 42x 2026E P/E (+1SD above thehistorical average unchanged, to reflect the machinery upcycle and humanoidrobot components growth). We see any post-results share price pullback asbuying opportunities.
    Key highlights in 2025 results: Revenue in 2025 grew 17% YoY toRMB10.9bn (hydraulic cylinders: +10%; pump & valve: +21%; hydraulicsystems: +30%; components: +30%). Blended gross margin contracted1.2ppts YoY to 41.6%, due largely to a 2.9ppt YoY contraction of hydrauliccylinders margin. EBIT was +16% YoY due to lower SG&A and R&Dexpense ratio. Net profit only increased 9% YoY to RMB2.73bn due to asharp reduction of net finance income as a result of FX loss. Operating cashinflow dropped 27% YoY to RMB1.8bn.
    Risk factors: (1) Slowdown of demand for hydraulic components; (2)slower-than-expected new business development.

Building for the next leg of WFE growth

北方华创(002371)
    Naura reported FY25 revenue of RMB39.4bn, up 31% YoY and broadly in linewith our and Bloomberg consensus, while net profit declined 1.8% YoY toRMB5.5bn, below expectations due to heavier R&D investment and opexassociated with increased hiring and Kingsemi consolidation. While 4Q margincame under pressure, we view this primarily as a result of intensified productvalidation rather than deterioration in end demand. Encouragingly, the Companycontinued to deliver strong top-line momentum on robust IC equipment growth(50%+ YoY) and ongoing product expansion into higher-value process steps.We remain positive on Naura’s positioning as a core beneficiary of China’s WFElocalization trend and domestic foundry capex expansion. Maintain BUY andraise TP to RMB540, based on 35x 2027E P/E (prev. 35x 2026E P/E), as welook through near-term margin headwinds and focus on the sequential recoveryand the anticipated earnings inflection in 2027E.
    Naura’s etching and deposition segment revenue both exceededRMB10bn in FY25, driving IC equipment revenue growth of more than 50%YoY, per mgmt. We believe this performance shows Naura’s strengtheningposition in China’s domestic WFE supply chain. Looking ahead, new productofferings such as 12-inch PVD, vertical furnace systems and HBM-relatedhybrid bonding solutions should support deeper penetration into logic,memory and advanced packaging, providing a broader and higher-qualitygrowth runway into 2026E and beyond. We expect IC equipment sales togrow by over 40% YoY in 2026E.
    Near-term profitability softened on investment and validation butshould improve as scale benefits emerge. Naura’s 4Q margins werepressured by elevated component upgrade costs during client validation fornew products and weaker profitability in non-IC segments such as PV. At thesame time, Naura continued to invest aggressively for future growth, withR&D expenses up 46% YoY and admin expenses rising 102% YoY followingthe Kingsemi consolidation and headcount expansion. We expectprofitability to improve progressively as validated tools move into volumeproduction, product mix shifts further toward IC equipment, and operatingleverage strengthens into 2H26.
    Maintain BUY with TP revised to RMB540, based on its three-yearhistorical forward average P/E. We remain bullish on China’s WFE sector,as accelerating domestic substitution and sustained capex from logic andmemory foundries continue to reinforce a strong multi-year growth backdrop.With the most comprehensive WFE portfolio among domestic peers, Naurais positioned to capture this opportunity across a broadening range ofprocess steps. We expect margin expansion to reaccelerate from 2027Eonward, driven by a more favorable mix shift toward higher-marginadvanced-node products and stronger operating leverage as scalecontinues to build.

1Q26 earnings: Brighter than a shooting star

中际旭创(300308)
    Innolight delivered a standout1Q26,with revenue jumping192%YoY/47.3%QoQ to RMB19.5bn(vs.Bloomberg consensus of RMB15.4bn),and net profitsurging262%YoY/56.5%QoQ to RMB5.7bn(vs.RMB4.4bn consensus),bothmarking new quarterly highs.During the period,GPM expanded further to46.1%(vs.44.5%in4Q25),primarily due to improving mix and rising SiPhopenetration.Mgmt.framed the strong quarter not as a one-off outperformancebut as a reflection of sustained demand strength and improved execution,withrobust capacity ramp-up,including Thailand,and resilient raw materialprocurement supporting shipment in a tight S/D backdrop.Maintain BUY withTP adjusted to RMB1,080on28x rollover2027E P/E(prev.28x2026E P/E).
    800G and1.6T ramped up in tandem,with rising SiPho mix furtherlifting margin.Revenue strength was driven by concurrent ramp-up in both800G and1.6T products,indicating that growth is broadening across thecompany’s high-end optical portfolio rather than being tied to a singleproduct inflection.Mgmt.highlighted meaningful contribution from both800G and1.6T shipments in1Q26,with the richer product mix continuing todrive margin higher.Within1.6T,SiPho is expected to account for more thanhalf of shipments this year,reinforcing our view that rising SiPho penetrationshould remain an important structural support to margin.
    NPO is the earlier catalyst,while XPO provides broader deploymentflexibility.Mgmt.indicated NPO has already received explicit customerdemand indications and could enter volume production in2027,with the usecase tied primarily to scale-up architectures.XPO,by contrast,is still inactive customer promotion,but was positioned across both scale-up andscale-out scenarios,with transmission reach of roughly100m to2km,implying broader deployment potential once commercialization visibilityimproves.
    Maintain BUY with TP revised to RMB1,080on rollover28x2027E P/E,supported by an order backlog that now stretches through2026andinto2027(and even beyond).In our view,what stood out this quarter wasnot only the magnitude of the beat,but the quality of execution behind it:Capacity expansion landed on time,supply-chain preparation remainedeffective despite tight upstream conditions,while product mix was movingstructurally upward.We believe this supports a more durable earningsprofile and strengthens confidence that Innolight can capture incrementalupside from future architectural shifts.

Navigating near-term pressures; expect growth to resume in 2026E

迈瑞医疗(300760)
    Mindray reported revenue of RMB33.3bn (-9.4% YoY) and attributable net profitof RMB8.1bn (-30.3% YoY) in 2025, 2%/ 12% below our estimates, respectively.The weak domestic business was the primary drag, which was attributable todomestic hospital budget constraints and policy pressures in IVD market.Attributable NPM dropped 7.3ppts YoY in 2025, reflecting domestic price cuts,FX losses, and higher overseas selling expenses. Looking ahead, we expect thedomestic business to bottom out in 2026E, while overseas business remains thekey growth driver. With resilient overseas growth, ongoing IVD share gains, andrapid scaling in emerging businesses, we believe Mindray remains wellpositioned for a long-term recovery. However, margin pressure may persistgiven the implementation of chemiluminescence VBP, FX volatility, and a highereffective tax rate.
    Overseas business remains resilient, led by Europe. Overseas revenuegrew 7.4% YoY to RMB17.7bn in 2025, accounting for 53% of total revenue.The overseas growth moderated amid inflation, geopolitical disruptions, anddelayed procurement in developing markets. Even so, Europe delivered astrong 17% YoY increase, supported by Mindray’s growing localization andintelligent solutions, which effectively addressed local labor shortages. Weexpect overseas growth to reaccelerate in 2026E as Mindray deepens localoperations and expands into higher-end accounts.
    Expect domestic business to bottom out in 2026E. Domestic revenuedeclined 23.0% YoY to RMB15.6bn in 2025, pressured by reduced hospitalprocurement budget and ongoing policy headwinds including DRG/DIP andVBP. Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain positive on Mindray’sdomestic IVD business, where Mindray continues to execute on its “DoubleBig” strategy focused on top-tier hospitals and large-volume customers. In2025, revenue from these key customers grew nearly 20% YoY andrepresented 45% of domestic IVD reagent revenue. We project a return topositive growth in domestic business in 2026E, underpinned by ongoing IVDshare gains and a growing revenue mix from emerging businesses.
    Emerging businesses are becoming the next growth driver. Emergingbusiness revenue rose 38.9% YoY to RMB5.4bn, accounting for 16% of totalrevenue, making it Mindray’s fastest-growing segment. This segmentincludes minimally invasive interventions (APT Medical), minimally invasivesurgery and animal care. We think the long-term growth is driven by an agingpopulation, adoption of minimally invasive procedures, and growth in pethealthcare. With enriching product pipelines, we believe these businessescan become a meaningful long-term growth driver.
    Maintain BUY. Given the lower-than-expected earnings in 2025, we lowerour 2026E revenue/earnings forecast by 6%/23%, respectively, and reviseour target price to RMB204.54, based on a 9-year DCF (WACC: 9.1%,terminal growth: 3.0%, unchanged).

Stronger into 2026 on 1.6T ramp and SiPh mix

中际旭创(300308)
    Innolight delivered strong FY25 earnings, with revenue up 60% YoY toRMB38.2bn, in line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus, while net profitrose 109% YoY to RMB10.8bn, 1.4% below our forecast but broadly in line withconsensus. GPM improved sharply to 42.6% from 34.7% in FY24, driven bycontinued strength in high-speed optical module shipments and higher SiPhmix. Momentum accelerated further in 4Q25, with revenue up 102% YoY and30% QoQ, while GPM expanded to 44.5% from 42.8% in 3Q25. We continue toview Innolight as a key domestic AI beneficiary, supported by improving supplychain readiness, clear leadership in pluggable modules, and further marginupside from deeper SiPh penetration. Maintain BUY, with TP unchanged atRMB707, based on 28x 2026E P/E.
    Capacity expanded by 34% YoY in FY25, while shipments grew 45%,highlighting robust demand and solid ramp execution. Utilizationimproved from 74% in FY24 to 85% in FY25, while overseas salesaccounted for 92% of revenue and 86% of total shipments. Looking aheadin FY26E, we expect 800G to remain the primary shipment driver, while 1.6Tshould increasingly emerge as the key revenue and GPM growth driver,supported by higher SiPh penetration and a more favorable mix. Mgmt. alsoindicated it has strengthened supply assurance for key materials throughtighter agreements with core suppliers, higher strategic inventory, andbroader vendor qualification, which we believe should improve deliveryvisibility and support growth into FY26–27.
    Looking beyond the current ramp, we believe the Company’s productroadmap remains one of the strongest in the sector. Mgmt. sees 800Gand 1.6T as the core demand pillars in FY26, with 1.6T likely to scale muchfaster as adoption broadens across CSPs and AI infrastructure customers.At the same time, the Company is positioning for the next phase of opticalinterconnect demand across scale-up and scale-cross networks, whilecontinuing to advance its 3.2T roadmap across multiple technology paths,including EML-based and SiPh-based solutions. We expect 3.2Tpluggable modules to begin to contribute revenue in FY28E.
    Maintain BUY, with TP unchanged at RMB707, based on the same 28x2026E P/E. We remain positive on the Company’s earnings outlook, drivenby sustained 800G volume growth, rising 1.6T contribution, and furthermargin upside from deeper SiPh penetration. We lift our FY27E sales/netprofit forecast by 8%/12% as the Company continues to scale capacity tomeet robust demand on top of enhancing cost controls.

Landmark CDMO deal to fuel future growth

康龙化成(300759)
    Pharmaron reported2025financial results,with revenue growing by14.8%YoYto RMB14.10bn,and non-IFRS adj.net profit increasing by13.0%YoY toRMB1.82bn.Both revenue and profit growth meaningfully accelerated comparedto2024.The Company's2025revenue and adj.net profit came in0.5%and0.7%higher than our estimates,respectively,aligning with our expectations.Lookingahead,mgmt.expects revenue to grow by12-18%YoY in2026.It is worth notingthat this guidance incorporates a negative impact of3ppts from FX.
    Global customer demand continued to expand.Driven by the penetrationof strategic clients within the lab services and deliveries of CDMO projects,revenue from global Top20pharma clients surged by29.4%YoY,farexceeding the Company's overall growth.Similarly,revenue from Europeanclients grew by27.4%YoY,also well above the Company’s average,primarilydriven by effective go-to-market strategies and steady advancement ofCDMO pipeline.Newly signed orders increased by over14%YoY,extendingthe robust growth trend following a>20%YoY increase in2024.As the corebusiness,lab services saw its new bookings grow by~12%YoY in2025.Meanwhile,small molecule CDMO also showed encouraging momentum,delivering~13%YoY growth in new orders.During the year,the segmentadded24PhIII and15PPQ&commercialization projects,continuouslyelevating its commercial manufacturing potential going forward.Furthermore,the growth of new orders in clinical development segment outpaced theCompany’s average,indicating a stabilization and early recovery in clinicaldemand from domestic clients and the Company's expanding market share.
    Pivotal breakthroughs in small molecule CDMO commercial services.InMar2026,Pharmaron announced a commercial DP agreement with Eli Lillyfor the oral GLP-1drug,Orforglipron,a potential blockbuster.Under thisagreement,Eli Lilly will invest US$200mn in Pharmaron to support the build-out of technical capabilities,with the potential to further expand collaborationscope.The milestone partnership will not only generate significantincremental revenue in the future(despite limited contribution for2026),butalso signifies that Pharmaron's CDMO platform fully complies with thestringent quality systems of top-tier pharma companies.Consequently,thiswill serve as a powerful endorsement for Pharmaron to continuously expandin global market.Beyond the breakthrough in DP services,Pharmaron'sCDMO business has also established its commercial API capabilities.Its APIfacilities in Shaoxing and Ningbo have both passed the FDA inspections,while its first innovative API project in the US was approved in4Q25.Giventhe DP partnership with Eli Lilly and other pipeline advancements,we expectthe small molecule CDMO business to grow at a faster pace than theCompany's other business lines over the next three years.
    Maintain BUY.We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB38.08to RMB39.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%),to reflect a more positive trend ofglobal demand on R&D and manufacturing outsourcing.We forecastPharmaron’s revenue to grow by16.4%/15.9%/14.9%YoY and adj.net profitto increase by18.7%/17.7%/16.5%YoY in2026E/27E/28E,respectively.

Higher-value CIS mix expansion supports margin resilience

豪威集团(603501)
    OmniVision reported FY25 results with revenue up 12.1% YoY to RMB28.9bn,5% below both our estimate and BBG consensus, while net profit rose 21.7% YoYto RMB4.0bn, 2% below our forecast and 9% below BBG consensus. GPMimproved to 30.6% in FY25 from 29.4% in FY24, broadly in line with both ourestimate and consensus, mainly driven by a richer CIS mix and a highercontribution from auto CIS. By quarter, 4Q25 revenue grew 4% YoY but declined10% QoQ, mainly reflecting softer smartphone-related shipments andseasonality, while GPM improved sequentially to 31.3%, supported by continuedmix upgrade. Looking ahead, mgmt. guides 1Q26 revenue of RMB6.2–6.5bn, withthe midpoint implying a 2.3% YoY and 11% QoQ decline, while guiding GPM at28.7–29.6%, as higher component costs, especially memory-related inflation,continue to pressure downstream demand. Maintain BUY with TP adjusted toRMB136, based on 33.0x 2026E P/E (previous: 33.6x), in line with theCompany’s two-year historical forward average.
    Core CIS business continued to see a structural mix upgrade, withgrowth increasingly driven by higher-value auto, emerging/IoT, and medicalapplications rather than mobile alone. Core CIS revenue grew 10.7% YoY inFY25, while auto/emerging & IoT/medical contributed 35%/11%/5% ofsegment sales, up from 31%/4%/3.5% in FY24. By contrast, mobile CISrevenue declined 15.6% YoY and its mix fell to 39% from 51% in FY24,pointing to a more diversified growth profile. Mgmt. attributed auto CIS growthto rising camera content per vehicle, accelerating ADAS/AD penetration, andhigher value per camera, while emerging/IoT growth was driven by panoramicand action cameras, smart glasses, and edge-AI applications. Mgmt. alsohighlighted growing customization engagements with leading customers inoptical modules; together with the Company’s existing LCOS volumeshipments in WSS applications, we view this as early validation of its abilityto expand beyond CIS into optical-related opportunities. We expect the CISbusiness to deliver high-teens growth in FY26E, supported by a further mixshift toward higher-value applications.
    Other segments showed a more mixed pattern in FY25. Display revenuedeclined 8.5% YoY to RMB941mn, mainly due to weaker demand in thesmartphone LCD TDDI market, although the Company made progress inproduct-line optimization. Analog revenue grew 13.4% YoY to RMB1.6bn,supported by deeper customer engagement across power management,driver, and signal-chain products. Auto analog was a key growth driver, withrevenue reaching nearly RMB300mn, or close to 20% of Analog sales, upmore than 47% YoY on increasing adoption of localized auto components andcontinued new product ramp-up.
    Maintain BUY, with TP adjusted to RMB136. Our new TP is based on 33.0x2026E P/E, in line with the Company’s two-year historical forward average.We lower our FY26E revenue and net profit forecasts by 10% and 20%,respectively, mainly to reflect a softer mobile demand outlook and continuedcomponent cost inflation in FY26E.

First take: 2025 earnings +36% in-line;overseas revenue surged 60% in 4Q25

中联重科(000157)
    Zoomlion’s net profit in 2025 grew 36% YoY to RMB4.8bn, which is 2% aboveour estimates and in-line with Bloomberg consensus. The result implies netprofit growth of >1.2x YoY in 4Q25. Overseas revenue in 4Q25 surged 60%YoY to RMB9.2bn (accelerated from 34% YoY in 3Q25), which accounted for~62% of total revenue. Zoomlion proposed final dividend of RMB0.2/share.This, together with the interim dividend of RMB0.2/share, implies a full-yearpayout ratio of 72%. We continue to like Zoomlion’s aggressive overseasexpansion plan on the back of full range of products. Our TP for Zoomlion A/Hare unchanged at RMB12.0/HK$9.2 (based on 2026E target P/E multiple of18.6x for A-share and 30% discount for H-share). Maintain BUY.

Eyes on Aistaland and exports

广汽集团(601238)
    Maintain BUY.We expect the launch of GAC’s first model co-developed withHuawei in Jun2026to be a positive catalyst,following non-event FY25results.We also expect exports to double YoY,cost reduction to be more apparent andequity income to stabilize,which help GAC narrow its net loss in FY26E.
    4Q25results in line with profit warning.GAC’s4Q25revenue rose22%QoQ to RMB29.6bn,23%higher than our forecast.GPM improved3.8pptsQoQ to-0.8%,beating our forecast by2.9ppts.Share of profits from JVsand associates in4Q25turned negative(RMB-390mn)for the first timesince FY12amid widening losses at GAC Honda.That,along with a larger-than-expected impairment of RMB2.4bn,resulted in a net loss ofRMB4.5bn in4Q25,in line with its previous profit warning.
    Aistaland and exports as keys to FY26E.The GT7,the first mid-to-largecar under the Aistaland brand co-developed with Huawei,will be launchedin Jun2026,which could be a positive catalyst for GAC’s shares.Inaddition,GAC aims to double export volume to0.25mn units for itshomegrown brands this year.We expect an increased export mix to liftGPM by3.3ppts YoY to0.5%in FY26E,given that overseas GPM was10.7ppts higher than domestic one in FY25.
    Equity income could stabilize in FY26E.We believe GAC Toyotaremains better positioned than most of its JV peers in China,with a resilient4.6%NPM and earnings contribution of RMB2.5bn in FY25.The successof the bZ3X has provided a viable path for Toyota’s NEV transition inChina.We expect GAC Honda’s loss in FY26E to narrow from RMB981mnin FY25with capacity and personnel downsizing.Therefore,we expectGAC’s equity income to be RMB2.2bn in FY26E,vs.RMB2.5bn in FY25.In addition,we also expect more cooperation between GAC and its JVsduring NEV transition,which could increase GAC’s income.
    Earnings/Valuation.We expect GAC’s SG&A and R&D ratios combinedto fall1.7ppts YoY to10.5%in FY26E amid its continued cost reductionefforts.Therefore,we estimate FY26E net loss to narrow to RMB4.8bn.Wemaintain our BUY rating and cut our H-share target price slightly fromHK$4.30to HK$4.20,based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation.We valueall GAC’s consolidated businesses at HK$3.40per share,based on0.3x(unchanged)our FY26E P/S.We value its JVs and associates at HK$0.80per share based on3x(unchanged)FY26E P/E.Our A-share TP ofRMB9.00is based on an A/H premium of142%.Key risks to our rating andTP include lower sales volume and margins than we expect,slowerelectrification for its JVs than we expect,and a sector de-rating.

Overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26

比亚迪(002594)
    Maintain BUY. Despite its 4Q25 earnings miss, we are of the view that thecash dent from shortening payable days could be over now and BYD could beone of the biggest beneficiaries from rising oil price in its overseas markets.We believe BYD’s previous high earnings quality and industry-leadingtechnologies could also lay foundation for its net profit growth in FY26-27E.
    4Q25 earnings miss on GPM, finance cost. BYD’s 4Q25 revenue waslargely in line with our forecast while GPM narrowed by 0.2ppts QoQ, or0.6ppts lower than our projection. Such miss was offset by its stringentR&D expenses. On the other hand, BYD’s finance cost (incl. forex loss)and government grants in 4Q25 were both below our prior expectation,leading to a net profit miss of 18% in 4Q25. Net profit per vehicle was aboutRMB6,900 in 4Q25, about RMB100 lower than that in 3Q25.
    Cash flow dent from shortening payable days may be over. BYD’soperating cash flow of RMB59bn in FY25 hit its lowest level since FY21due to shortened payable days. Its net cash at the end of FY25 wasnarrowed by about RMB62bn YoY. We estimate that BYD’s interestexpense and receivable discounts rose by almost RMB1.3bn YoY in FY25,dragging down its net profit by about 4%. We are of the view that such dentis short-lived, should BYD be able to keep its current payable days.
    Overseas markets, energy storage to lift profit. We maintain our FY26Esales volume forecast of 5mn units, with overseas markets contributing1.5mn units (implying 1% YoY decline for domestic sales volume). Webelieve BYD could be one of the biggest beneficiaries from rising oil priceamid the current geopolitical tension, not only for its overseas NEV sales,but also photovoltaic and energy storage battery sales. We thus project itsrevenue to rise 9%/8% YoY and GPM to be largely flat at 17.8% in FY26-27E.
    Earnings/Valuation. It appears to us that BYD has been more prudent onR&D expenses with only 9% YoY growth and 8.6% capitalization ratio inFY25 (vs. 1.8% in FY24). We expect R&D expenses to rise 3%/2% YoY inFY26-27E. We also expect government grants in FY26-27E to be at asimilar level as FY25, given the continuously rising deferred incomebalance. Accordingly, we project BYD’s net profit to rise 11%/21% YoY toRMB36.3bn/43.8bn in FY26-27E. We maintain our BUY rating and A/Hshare target price of HK$125/RMB125, based on 23x (prior 20x) ourFY27E P/E, to reflect its brighter overseas outlook. Key risks include lowersales volume or margins than we expect, and a sector de-rating.

Possible positive surprise from new platform

长城汽车(601633)
    Maintain BUY.Great Wall’s4Q25revenue and GPM beat our forecast whilenet profit missed due to the recycling fee reimbursement in Russia.Despite aYoY decline of1.5ppts amid stiffer competition,FY25GPM of18.0%was stillresilient among peers,thanks to its improving product mix.We believe suchtrend could extend into FY26E based on its model pipeline and export target.It appears to us that Great Wall’s scheduled new models are more promisingthan previous years with its new competitive platform.
    4Q25core net profit in line with our forecast,GPM beat.Great Wall’srevenue in4Q25rose16%YoY to an all-time high of RMB69bn,9%higherthan our prior forecast.GPM in4Q25narrowed by1.2ppts QoQ to17.3%,or0.2ppts higher than our projection.Gross profit beat was largely offsetby SG&A and R&D expenses in4Q25.Net profit excluding governmentgrants,VAT refunds and Russia’s recycling fee reimbursement in4Q25was about RMB407mn,in line with our forecast.
    More competitive pricing with new platform.Management is positive onthe new platform,Guiyuan,as it is capable of producing vehicles withdifferent powertrains and a parts sharing ratio of almost85%.Four newWey-brand models are scheduled to roll out in FY26E with morecompetitive pricing aided by cost reduction efforts from the new platform.We revise up FY26E sales volume forecast of Wey brand by20,000unitsto200,000units,or doubling from FY25.
    Better product mix,rising exports to sustain GPM.Apart from Wey,wealso expect exports,especially from the Tank brand(export target of0.1mnunits in FY26E),to lift average selling price(ASP)and uphold GPM.Werevise up export volume by3%to0.62mn units in FY26E given the currentgeopolitical dynamics.Accordingly,we project ASP to rise by1%YoY toRMB171,000and GPM to widen by0.1ppts YoY to18.1%in FY26E.
    Earnings/Valuation.We maintain our FY26E sales volume forecast of1.49mn units but revise up Wey-brand sales volume and exports as notedabove.We project FY26E net profit to rise19%YoY to RMB11.8bn,takingexpenses for direct-operated store expansion and reimbursement fromRussia into account.We maintain our BUY rating and cut our H-sharetarget price slightly from HK$20.00to HK$19.00,still based on12x ourrevised FY26E P/E.Our A-share target price of RMB26.00is based onGreat Wall's A/H premium of55%.Key risks to our rating and target priceinclude lower sales volume and margins than our expectation,as well as asector de-rating.

Strong CDMO demand to fuel 2026 growth

药明康德(603259)
    WuXi AppTec reported impressive financial results for 2025, with revenuegrowing by 15.8% YoY (including 21.4% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit expanding at a remarkable 41.3% YoY.The Company's 2025 revenue and adj. net profit beat our estimates by 2.7% and18.2%, respectively. Looking ahead, mgmt. projects 2026 revenue to reach RMB51.3-53.0bn, along with 18-22% YoY revenue growth for continuing operations,while the adj. non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to remain stable.
    Strong CDMO demand. As of 4Q25, the backlog for WuXi AppTec’scontinuing operations grew by 28.8% YoY (or 34% on a constant currencybasis) to reach RMB58.0bn. Although this signifies a deceleration from+45.8% YoY growth recorded as of 3Q25, we note that such growth is highlycommendable given the already massive absolute base of backlog, clearlyindicating the consistently high demand from global customers, particularlyfor its CDMO services. As of 4Q25, backlog for TIDES increased by 20.2%YoY, accelerating from the +17.1% growth at the end of 3Q25. Mgmt.disclosed that the TIDES backlog has reached ~RMB20.0 bn. Based on thisfigure, we calculate that the backlog for other businesses booked YoYgrowth of 33.8% in 2025, and we believe the strong growth was primarilydriven by the small molecule D&M business. Supported by the robustdemand, mgmt. forecasts that the TIDES business will grow by 30-40% YoY(on a constant currency basis) in 2026, while the small molecule D&Mbusiness is also expected to experience accelerated growth.
    Early-stage businesses recovering with improvement in revenuegrowth. Within the chemistry segment, full-year revenue for small moleculedrug discovery services declined by 3.8% YoY (a marked improvement fromthe -28.7% YoY drop in 2024), with 2H25 seeing a narrowed decline of 2.2%YoY. Revenue from Testing segment grew by 4.7% YoY (vs -8.0% YoY in2024), driven by 8.8% YoY growth in 2H25. Similarly, revenue from Biologysegment increased by 5.2% YoY (vs -0.3% YoY in 2024). As the globalbiotech funding continues to recover, we believe the early-stage businessesare well-positioned to maintain this recovery momentum throughout 2026.
    Doubling down on global capacity expansion. WuXi AppTec's capex in2025 amounted to RMB5.54bn, representing a YoY surge of 38.5% (vs -27.5% YoY decline in 2024). To support ongoing global capacity build-outsand to capture future market opportunities, mgmt. anticipated 2026 capex toreach RMB6.5 - 7.5 bn, implying a YoY increase of 17.3% to 35.4%. Notably,the Company plans to further expand its solid-phase peptide synthesisreactor volume to 130,000 liters, serving as a strong indicator of the surgingmanufacturing demand for peptide and oligonucleotide drugs.
    Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB123.35 toRMB133.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), tofactor into the updated guidance and our positive demand outlook. We nowexpect revenue to grow by 13.7%/ 15.7%/ 13.4% YoY (for continuingoperations: 19.1%/ 15.7%/ 13.4% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit togrow by 19.9%/ 16.0%/ 13.6% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E, respectively.

AI-led PCB growth with substrate upside ahead

深南电路(002916)
    SCC’s FY25 revenue grew 32% YoY to RMB23.6bn, in line with BBG consensusand 4% above our forecast. GPM improved significantly to 28.3% (0.3pptsabove BBG consensus and 1.4ppts above our estimate), up from 24.8% inFY24, driven by improved product mix, better cost efficiency and higherutilization. Net profit rose 75% YoY to RMB3.3bn, slightly below BBG consensus(-0.7%) but 8% ahead of our forecast. By quarter, 4Q revenue increased 42%YoY and 9% QoQ, while net profit grew 144% YoY but declined 1.6% QoQ. 4QGPM eased sequentially to 28.6% from 31.4% in 3Q mainly due to depreciationfrom the Nantong IV and Thailand facilities and higher raw material costs.Looking ahead, we expect SCC to continue benefiting from strong multilayerPCB demand driven by robust AI infra. capex, while its substrate businessshould gradually improve as BT supply remains tight and ABF/FC-BGA rampson rising domestic demand. Maintain BUY, with TP adjusted to RMB288.
    PCB revenue grew 37% YoY in FY25 with GPM at 35.5%. SCC continuedto benefit from strong AI data center demand (~25% of PCB revenue), whiletelecom was ~40% of PCB revenue, with utilization maintained at around95% across most fully ramped facilities. 4Q GPM softened slightly due toramp-up costs at Nantong IV and Thailand, higher raw material prices (e.g.,gold and CCL), and a higher contribution from lower-margin PCBA (revenueup 9% YoY, GPM at 15%). Looking ahead, we expect PCB revenue toremain supported by ongoing AI infra. capex, with strong demand from datacenters, switches and optical modules sustaining high utilization, whilemargins should stabilize as new capacity ramps and product mix improves.
    Substrate revenue grew 31% YoY in FY25 with GPM improving to22.6% (vs. 18.2% in FY24), supported by stronger BT substrate shipmentsand improving utilization amid tight industry supply and relatively stablepricing. BT demand remained robust with long order visibility, andGuangzhou BT capacity operated at relatively high utilization. Meanwhile,ABF/FC-BGA substrates remained in the early volume ramp stage (ABFrevenue was >RMB100mn in FY25), while the Guangzhou facility continuedto post losses as scale, yields and customer ramps develop. Looking ahead,we expect the substrate segment to improve gradually, supported byresilient BT demand and rising domestic compute demand for ABF/FCBGA, with segment GPM likely trending toward the mid-20% range asutilization improves.
    Reiterate BUY, with TP adjusted to RMB288 (prev. RMB235), based on38x FY26E P/E (prev. 34x). We value the Company using a blended peeraverage of both PCB (33x 2026 P/E) and substrate players (42x 2026 P/E)as we remain bullish on SCC’s continued PCB growth and the long-termramp of its high-end substrate business.

Pluggables first, new architecture later

中际旭创(300308)
    Innolight’s share price has experienced heightened volatility yesterday (down 5%on 4 Feb), driven by a combination of market concerns around NPO/CPOadoption, hyperscaler network roadmap evolution, upstream suppliers’ capacityexpansion, etc., prompting mgmt. to hold an investor Q&A session to addressthese issues. We believe the core investment theme remains intact thatpluggable modules will continue to dominate hyperscaler scale-out/scale-acrossdeployments through 2026-27E, with the Company retaining a structurallyirreplaceable role. Recent earnings from Lumentum (LITE US, NR) and Coherent(COHR US, NR) also reinforced a demand-driven industry backdrop, whilepractical constraints suggest that meaningful CPO adoption is unlikely beforelate-2027. Reiterate BUY on Innolight with TP unchanged at RMB707.
    Innolight's structural role in pluggable optical transceivers is intact,with optionality in NPO/CPO but no near-term displacement risk. Permgmt., high-speed pluggable modules continue to be the confirmeddeployment standard for hyperscaler scale-out/scale-across networks, withcustomer roadmaps clearly centered on 800G/1.6T through 2026-27E. Whilethe Company is actively engaged in NPO-like solutions or future CPOdevelopment, these efforts are complementary rather than substitutive,awaiting further reliability validation, serviceability, and ecosystem maturitywhich could all constrain early adoption, supporting our view that meaningfulCPO adoption is a late-2027 event instead of a 2026 risk.
    Upstream capacity expansion eases supply-chain constraints. Recentearnings from Lumentum and Coherent point to faster-than-expectedexpansion of upstream InP capacity, specifically EML and high-speed CWlasers, driven primarily by sustained demand from 800G and 1.6T pluggablemodules. Lumentum outlined a plan to expand InP capacity by ~40% by1H26E last year, noting that over 20% of this expansion has already beenrealized ahead of schedule, while Coherent indicated its InP wafer capacityexpansion, supported by a transition to 6-inch wafers, which is alsoprogressing faster than planned. Despite this accelerated ramp-up, neithercompany expects supply-demand balance to normalize in 2026-2027, asincremental capacity continues to be absorbed by end-market demand.Importantly, both companies characterized CPO as a constructive but stagedopportunity, reiterating that material contribution is unlikely before 2027 orbeyond.
    Maintain BUY on Innolight with TP unchanged at RMB707 (28x 2026EP/E). The Company's earnings preview showed a 108% YoY net profitincrease to RMB10.8bn (mid-point), in-line with our forecast of RMB10.9bn.Innolight remains the dominant supplier of 1.6T pluggable modules, withshipments set to accelerate through 2026-2027, while its SiPh solutions(already accounting for ~50% of 2025 shipments per mgmt.) will continue tosupport structural margin expansion. With order visibility extending into nearto-mid term, we see no structural risk in the company's earnings potential.