4Q25 earnings miss on gross margin and FX loss; But structural growth outlook still intact

恒立液压(601100)
    Hengli’s net profit in 4Q25 dropped 10% YoY to RMB647mn, which is 10%/5%below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates. The major deviation came from (1)a lower-than-expected gross margin (-6.11ppts YoY to 40.6%) due to highersales of non-excavator component products; and (2) a RMB206mn net financeexpense due mainly to fx loss (appreciation of RMB). That said, we are stayingpositive on Hengli as we expect continuous penetration into differentdownstream segments, as well as the structural growth outlook of humanoidrobots. We slightly revise up our 2026E/27E earnings forecasts by 1%/4%, dueto higher revenue and lower expense ratio assumptions. We slightly revise upour TP to RMB109 (from RMB105), based on 42x 2026E P/E (+1SD above thehistorical average unchanged, to reflect the machinery upcycle and humanoidrobot components growth). We see any post-results share price pullback asbuying opportunities.
    Key highlights in 2025 results: Revenue in 2025 grew 17% YoY toRMB10.9bn (hydraulic cylinders: +10%; pump & valve: +21%; hydraulicsystems: +30%; components: +30%). Blended gross margin contracted1.2ppts YoY to 41.6%, due largely to a 2.9ppt YoY contraction of hydrauliccylinders margin. EBIT was +16% YoY due to lower SG&A and R&Dexpense ratio. Net profit only increased 9% YoY to RMB2.73bn due to asharp reduction of net finance income as a result of FX loss. Operating cashinflow dropped 27% YoY to RMB1.8bn.
    Risk factors: (1) Slowdown of demand for hydraulic components; (2)slower-than-expected new business development.