研报指标速递-研报-股票频道-证券之星

代码机构最新评级

序号	证券代码	证券简称	研究机构	最新评级	目标价	报告日收盘价	预期涨幅	盈利预测	报告日期	报告摘要
24年EPS	25年EPS	26年EPS
1	000338	潍柴动力	招银国际	买入	17.90	14.52	23%	-	-	-	2024-10-14	报告摘要
Still positive, but wait for a better entry point after 3Q24E results 潍柴动力(000338) We trim our HDT engine sales volume forecast by 7%/7%2% in 2024E/25E/26E,after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please referto our sector report “China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in bothChina & export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025”). In the near term, webelieve the narrowed LNG/diesel price spread will be unfavourable to Weichai’sgas engine segment. While our earnings forecast in 2024E-26E is only reviseddown by 1-3% due to a relatively solid margin outlook, our new forecastssuggest profit growth to decelerate from 51% in 1H24 to 7%/2% in2H24E/2025E. Our SOTP-based TP for A/H (rolled over to 2025E) is reviseddown to RMB17.9/HK$17.7 (from RMB18.0/HK$19.5). We still maintain BUYrating as valuation (10.7x 2025E P/E) is not excessive even under our newearnings forecast, but we see a better entry point after the upcomingannouncement of 3Q24E results (30 Oct). Risk factors: 1) weakness in engine exports; 2) lower-than-expectedreplacement demand in China; (3) further contraction of diesel/gas priceratio.

序号

证券代码

证券简称

研究机构

最新评级

目标价

报告日收盘价

预期涨幅

盈利预测

报告日期

报告摘要

24年EPS

25年EPS

26年EPS

000338

潍柴动力

招银国际

买入

17.90

14.52

23%

2024-10-14

报告摘要

Still positive, but wait for a better entry point after 3Q24E results

潍柴动力(000338)
We trim our HDT engine sales volume forecast by 7%/7%2% in 2024E/25E/26E,after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please referto our sector report “China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in bothChina & export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025”). In the near term, webelieve the narrowed LNG/diesel price spread will be unfavourable to Weichai’sgas engine segment. While our earnings forecast in 2024E-26E is only reviseddown by 1-3% due to a relatively solid margin outlook, our new forecastssuggest profit growth to decelerate from 51% in 1H24 to 7%/2% in2H24E/2025E. Our SOTP-based TP for A/H (rolled over to 2025E) is reviseddown to RMB17.9/HK$17.7 (from RMB18.0/HK$19.5). We still maintain BUYrating as valuation (10.7x 2025E P/E) is not excessive even under our newearnings forecast, but we see a better entry point after the upcomingannouncement of 3Q24E results (30 Oct).
Risk factors: 1) weakness in engine exports; 2) lower-than-expectedreplacement demand in China; (3) further contraction of diesel/gas priceratio.