China:Weaker RMB loans but stronger total social financing in January

Key numbers:

M2: 11.3% yoy in January (9.6% SA ann mom) vs. GSe: 11.4% yoy, Bloombergconsensus: 11.3% yoy. December: 11.3% yoy (8.6% SA ann mom estimated by GS).

New CNY loans: Rmb2,030bn in January (RMB loans to the real economy:Rmb2,310bn) vs. GSe: Rmb1,900bn, consensus: Rmb2,440bn.

Outstanding CNY loan growth: 12.6% yoy in January (12.8% SA ann mom,estimated by GS); December 13.5% yoy (13% SA ann mom).

Total social financing (TSF, flow, before adding local government bond net issuance):Rmb3,740bn in January vs. GSe: Rmb2,600bn, consensus: Rmb3,000bn,December: Rmb1,626bn. Adjusted TSF stock growth was 15.5% yoy in January (GSestimate after adjusting for local government bond issuance), lower than 15.7% inDecember. The implied month-on-month growth was 15.1% SA ann mom, up from12.8% in December. (There was no issuance of local government bonds in Januarycompared with Rmb102.3bn of issuance in December according to WIND data. Ourestimates of yoy and sequential growth of TSF stock are adjusted for localgovernment bond net issuance.) According to the PBOC, TSF stock growth (notadjusting for local government bond issuance) was 12.8%yoy in January.