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CSPC Pharmaceutical Group:3Q16post-results analyst meeting transcript

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Revenue for innovative drugs was +18.5% y/y to HK$3.506bn, (+35.2% y/yexcluding fx impact), accounting for 38% of group revenue. Among innovative drugs,NBP revenue growth was the strongest +71% y/y to HK$1.951bn (+78.4% y/yexcluding fx impact); Oulaining/Xuanning/anti-cancer drugs reachedHK$801.1mn/343.1mn/412.1mn, +10.2%/12.8%/28.1% (+17%/+38.7%/34.8% y/yexcluding fx impact). For common generics, revenue growth was stable at 3.7% y/yto HK$3.126bn (+9.1% y/y excluding fx impact).

Revenue for API reached HK$2.618bn, -5.1% yoy. Caffeine and Vitamin C saw salesvolume growth while antibiotic API saw sales decline of 24% y/y due to decreasingpricing and volume.

Gross margin-wise, due to the higher % sales of finished drugs, the commongeneric GP margin was 50.2% (+4.8% y/y) with innovative drugs at 64.7% (+4.6%y/y). Net margin was up 2.4% while net profit reached HK$1.568bn +32.7%excluding fx impact.

The first 3 quarters reflect the trend for the full year, in line with our previousguidance for earnings growth (20-30% y/y). The growth was 26.1% even consideringfx impact. We have not anticipated such a drastic depreciation of Rmb previously.

Looking forward to 2017, we are quite optimistic, mainly from 2 aspects:Firstly, external factors. The changes in the reimbursement list will be completed byend of 2016 and this is the target from the authorities. We expect the new list to bemade public by 1Q17. The overall principle for the change is for addition, not deletionof drugs. What we heard from experts is that it takes 100 reasons to remove aproduct, but only takes 1 reason to add a product to the new reimbursement list. Sothis works to our benefit. In addition, the faster new drug review process will alsohelp to benefit the large players while driving out the smaller, less competitive ones.





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