China Real Estate:National property in Oct,Vol down on policy tightening;new starts/FAI remained solid yoy

Vol dropped as expected; ASP mildly down…

National primary total/residential propertytransaction volume in Oct were both down 15%mom on policy tightening and decelerated to +26%yoy from +34%/+35% in Sep. Secondary marketvolume of 14 cities had a similar trend: -19%mom/+25% yoy. Primary transactions ASP was -3%mom/+11% yoy. Average secondary prices for 5major cities were -2% mom/+34% yoy dragged byShanghai.

…while new starts/FAI accelerated yoy again.

Oct new starts decreased 7% mom, but up 20%yoy (vs. -19% yoy in Sep) off a low base, in linewith our expectation, sending 10M growth to 8%yoy. Property FAI growth also accelerated to 13%yoy, vs. 6% yoy in Sep. Eastern China (55% ofcountry) led at +18% yoy (vs. +5% in Sep).

Land sales fell on mix shift to lower-tier.

Oct total land sales value/vol for 300+ cities down49%/3% mom and 20%/20% yoy, sending 10Mland sales value/vol to +33%/-7% yoy. Land pricewas -47% mom/flat yoy, vs. +10% mom/+68% yoyin Sep. Residential land sales in 200+ cities shrank55% mom/17% yoy.