2H26 earnings inflection with attractive valuation

（以下内容从招银国际《2H26 earnings inflection with attractive valuation》研报附件原文摘录）
长城汽车(601633)
Maintain BUY.Great Wall's2Q26results were in line with its profit alert,withASP beating our forecast on a record export mix.We see an earnings inflectionin2H26E,driven by the expected receipt of RMB3-4bn in Russian recycling-fee reimbursement by Dec2026,new model ramp-ups(such as the H10),andstabilizing selling expenses following the completion of its direct-sales networkexpansion.Exports—now accounting for more than half of total sales volumewith structurally higher margins—underpin earnings quality,while the Guiyuanplatform should revive domestic sales,in our view.
2Q26core profit in line,revenue beat.Great Wall's2Q26net profit ofRMB1,519mn(-67%YoY,+61%QoQ)fell within its profit-alert range ofRMB1.4-1.7bn.The YoY decline was mainly due to the delayed recognitionof about RMB2.0bn of recycling-fee reimbursement in Russia(vs.RMB2.3bn recognized in2Q25);excluding this drag and adverse forex,core net profit was largely flat YoY.Revenue rose9%YoY to RMB57.0bn,4%above our forecast,driven by a record quarterly ASP of RMB181,000(+8%YoY).GPM remained resilient at18.3%(vs18.8%in2Q25).
Prioritizing profit over volume.We cut our FY26E sales volume forecastby30,000units to1.35mn units(0.7mn units for exports and0.65mn unitsfor domestic market),as it appears to us that Great Wall continues toprioritize profitability over volume.This implies2H26sales volume of about0.77mn units,up31%HoH and2%YoY.Factoring in a higher exportcontribution offset by year-end bonus accruals,we expect2H26GPM tonarrow0.5ppts HoH to17.9%.We conservatively assume RMB3.0bn ofrecycling-fee reimbursement to be received in2H26.Accordingly,we trimour FY26E net profit by1.3%to RMB9.2bn.For FY27E,we lower salesvolume forecast from1.6mn to1.53mn units but expect rising exports andthe Guiyuan platform to support margins,bringing our FY27E net profitforecast to RMB10.9bn(-7.5%).
Valuation/Key risks.We maintain BUY and cut our H-share target pricefrom HK$19.00to HK$14.00,now based on10x FY27E P/E(prior12x),toreflect compressed sector-wide valuation multiples.Our A-share targetprice is adjusted to RMB25.00,based on the current A/H premium of about110%.Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volumeand margins than we expect,as well as a further sector de-rating.