3Q prelim rev/np +28%/93%; estimates unchanged

（以下内容从招银国际《3Q prelim rev/np +28%/93%; estimates unchanged》研报附件原文摘录）
中国中免(601888)
CTGDF reported preliminary 3Q financial data with revenue increasing by+27.9% YoY to RMB15.0bn, gross margins expanding to 34.3% (1Q/2Q:28.8%/32.5%), and net profits growing +93.1% to RMB1.3bn. The quarter’srevenue was apparently flattish compared to that of 2Q, and that should notcome in as a surprise to the market given the trajectory we observed in thevisitation momentum to Hainan (6M: 30.3% YoY vs 8M: 38.6% YoY). Other thanthat, a slightly lower pre-tax margin of 10.8% (2Q: 11.9%) caught our attentionand that was probably owing to higher revenue shares to airports. All in all, whenconsensus expectation is tapering, we continue to argue that earnings risk isincrementally contained, and our implied 4Q revenue/net profits ofRMB21bn/1.7bn should look intact on a seasonally stronger festival travellingand spending.
Major 10.1 Golden week indicators were a mixed bag... A total of 826mnpeople travelled domestically between the 8 days of 29 Sep to 6 Oct, 104%of pre-COVID but is below government target of 113%. In dollar terms,tourism revenue of RMB753bn stood at 102% of pre-COVID level. Eachtraveller spent 4% less vs pre-COVID and yet 5% more vs the 5.1 holidaythis year. Our TMT team noted that long-haul travel has increased to 51%of the mix, compared to 35% in 2022.
… but those of Hainan looked well-expected. A total of 4.3mn tourists tothe Island during the break, 107% of pre-COVID and 133% of the level seenin the 5.1 holiday this year. The number of DF shoppers per day is 3% less,and each shopper spent 3% less compared to 5.1.
Earnings change. We largely maintain our forecasts for now and wait forfurther details at full results release on 27 Oct. In our model, we continueto assume RMB46bn Hainan DFS revenue (including Haitang Bay).
Valuation. We maintain our average valuation from 2018 inclusive. In ourview, there is presumably no quick fix to the flattering consumption recovery,and now we project CTGDF to grow at a more normalised cadence over2024-25E in tandem with the macro economy. With no major changes toour earnings forecasts, our revised TP is based on an updated 27.5x (frompreviously 29.0x) end-24E P/E which still benchmarks to -1sd below 5-yearaverage since 2018.