Investors focusing on 800G transceivers ramp-up after 1H23 results_股票频道

（以下内容从招银国际《Investors focusing on 800G transceivers ramp-up after 1H23 results》研报附件原文摘录）
中际旭创(300308)
Innolight released 1H23 results. Total revenue was RMB4,004mn (-5.4% YoY),mixed impacts from increasing demand for AI-related transceivers anddeteriorated demand for traditional datacenter products. NP was RMB613.8mn(24.6% YoY), mainly driven by higher GPM and operating cost optimization.1H23 NP was close to the mid-point of the preliminary range. Maintain HOLD,with unchanged TP at RMB104.
AI-related transceivers have offset non-AI transceivers. Company’s2Q23 revenue showed sequential growth (17.9% QoQ) primarily attributedto heightened shipment of 800G transceivers. However, total revenue fellslightly in 1H23, as the Company pointed out that the demand for200G/400G transceivers from datacenter was declining. This trend alignswith our previous expectations that AI investment will likelycannibalize certain traditional server expenditures and negatively affectsales of non-AI high speed transceivers. (link)
Margins stand out particularly. GPM expanded to 31.1% in 2Q23 vs.29.5%/29.3% in 1Q23/2022. NPM also increased to 16.8% in 2Q23 vs.13.6%/12.7% in 1Q23/2022. The increase is mainly due to decrease inprocurement costs and favorable product mix driven by increasing 800Gproducts shipment.
Maintain HOLD, with unchanged TP at RMB104. We lowered 2023-25Erevenue forecasts by 6%-11%, as non-AI weakness is greater than ourprevious expectations. 2023-25E GPM was adjusted to 30.5%-31.7%,reflecting favourable product mix as the Company is expected to delivermore high data rate transceivers that have higher margins. The net impactsfrom lower sales and higher GPM left NP almost unchanged. 1H23 totalrevenue/NP now accounted for 39%/42% of our full-year estimates.
Potential upside/downside: We believe investors are closely monitoringthe scaling up of 800G transceiver capacity and the Company’s ability tosustain the current performance, i.e., sequential sales growth andcontinuing margin expansion. Meanwhile, the deteriorated demand of200G/400G transceivers for datacenter should be on investors’ radar. Whilewe regard Innolight’s optical transceivers business positively, we believe thecurrent valuation is full.