2Q Rev/NP +20.4/21.0% as pre-announced_股票频道

（以下内容从招银国际《2Q Rev/NP +20.4/21.0% as pre-announced》研报附件原文摘录）
贵州茅台(600519)
Moutai announced 2Q results that matched with its pre-announcement, and wedo not expect the numbers to be eventful to near term share price. While Moutaihas been a laggard of the recent baijiu sector rally in response to a positive markettakeaway from the recent politburo meeting, the company remains a soliddefensive name which shields itself from any malignant price competition throughits brand scarcity. Our recent channel check with distributors indicated that pricesof sealed/unpacked Feitian Moutai steadied at RMB2,940/2,740 per bottle byend-July, largely unchanged from that we observed in early June, not to mentiona healthy 15-day inventory level. Forward-looking into 3Q in which gifting seasonbegins with the Mid-Autumn festival, we see every reason for Moutai to sustainits high-teen growth trajectory. We remain Buyer of Moutai.
Key 2Q results takeaway
2Q revenue booked RMB31.6bn, up 20.4%, compared to 18.7% in 1Qand 19.0% in the pre-announcement. This was mainly driven by 21.0%growth in both Moutai and Series liquor sales. Assuming a high singledigit volume growth, we attribute the predominant growth driver to ASPuplift. 2Q GPM stood at 91%.
Production wise, in our view, the growing Series spirit contribution shouldcomprehend Moutai’s competitiveness in the entry high-end segment,while alleviating the growth bottleneck of Moutai spirit.
We believe 2H outlook is positive with relatively more gifting scenariosand increased corporate procurement needs along with further macrorecovery.
Regarding innovative launches, subsequent to the debut of Moutai icecream, the company migrated into the coffee segment with new attemptsin Moutai Americano, Moutai Dirty, Moutai Latte, etc. The CEOmentioned that Moutai shall expand its product coverage with the aim ofattracting younger customers.
Earnings change/Valuation. We moderately adjust our forecasts on back of anin-line 2Q results. Our TP is still based on 41.0x end-23E P/E, which representslong-term average since 2019. Our methodology reflects our relative optimism(vis-a-vis other F&B diversified of which target multiples are based on -1sd belowlong term average) on Moutai that it is one of the core beneficiaries of China’sreopened economy with high certainty in earnings delivery.