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Green power giant forges ahead

来源:招银国际 作者:Megan Xia,Jack Bai 2023-08-02 10:02:00
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(以下内容从招银国际《Green power giant forges ahead》研报附件原文摘录)
三峡能源(600905)
China Three Gorges Renewables (CTGR) is one of the pioneers among newenergy power operators. The Company is a subsidiary of CTG, whose activelydevelops wind and solar power. CTGR plans to achieve a newly installed capacityof 5,000 MW in solar and wind power in 2023, with installation progress expectedto accelerate in 2H23. We anticipate that lower upstream costs may improveCTGR’s IRR of the new energy projects. CTGR is also exploring the integration ofmultiple new energy to develop innovative projects and looking for further growthspace. Currently, CTGR is trading at 17x FY23E PE. We assign CTGR withFY23E target PE of 20x and arrive at the target price of RMB 6.79/ share.Initiate with BUY.
CTGR is one of the top players among new energy power operators.CTGR is a subsidiary of CTG that focuses on developing new energy withgreat financial resilience and advanced technology, including wind power andsolar power, and other new energy such as pumped storage, and hydrogenenergy. CTGR aims to achieve newly-added installed capacity of 5,000 MW fosolar and wind power in 2023. Even though the installation progress wasslightly slower in 1H23, we expect its installation progress will speed up in2H23 to reach its installation target in 2023.
CTGR has strong reserve projects that supports its rapid growth in newenergy installation. Lower upstream costs of wind and solar power haveled to higher IRR of the company's projects. By 2022, CTGR’s projectreserve exceeds 130mn kW. The newly-added identified project achieve54.88mn kW, including 9.85mn kW of onshore wind power and 25.93mn kW ofsolar power. We believe abundant projects reserve will send great support forthe further growth of CTGR’s installed capacity. Additionally, based on mgmt.’sguided stable tariff assumption, CTGR’s installation willingness will up in 2023as the IRR of wind and solar power projects may up as the falling upstreamcost.
CTGR has several competitive advantages in the comparison of the newenergy power operators under the "Big Five and Small Noble 4" PowerGroup. CTGR outperforms in revenue growth, net profit margin, solar powerinstalled capacity, etc. We believe CTGR's new energy installed capacity andpower generation will continue to perform well in 2023, due to upstream costreduction and IRR increase trends, as well as the company's advanced costcontrol ability. As a result, we expect the company's revenue and net profit tomaintain a strong growth momentum in 2023.
We assign CTGR with FY23E target PE of 20x and arrive at the targetprice of RMB 6.79/ share, initiate with BUY. We expect CTGR’s net profitto be RMB9.7bn, RMB11.79bn, and RMB14.44bn in 2023, 2024, and 2025,respectively, with EPS of RMB0.34, RMB0.41, and RMB0.50/share.Additionally, We estimate CTGR will achieve its installed capacity target of5000MW for solar and wind power in 2023, based on the Company's costcontrol capabilities and rising IRR of the projects, and stable realized tariff for2023. Currently, CTGR is trading at 17x FY23E PE. We assign CTGR withan FY23 target PE of 20x and arrive at the target price of RMB 6.79/ share.Initiate with BUY.





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