A Global Macro Deep Dive:Global trade in goods

Event: the CPB trade data release: global volume and price indices for January.The CPB provide consistent seasonally-adjusted volume/price break-outs.

World export growth has picked up moderately, from -0.8% YoY (January2016) to +3.9% YoY (November 2016, +3.1% YoY in both December 2016 andJanuary 2017), broadly in line with the global industrial production recovery (anadir of +0.3% YoY in November 2015 to +3.1% YoY in December 2016).

Seasonally adjusted, January was -0.7% month-on-month, with December+1.0% MoM (upper chart below). The export price indices are in the process ofswinging from heavily negative to neutral (lower chart below).