Macau Gaming:February surprise,Macau back on track

Event

According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau Macau (DICJ), Febgross gaming revenue (GGR) was MOP23.0bn, +17.9% yoy. This result was setagainst a Feb ‘16 comp with one extra leap-year day and compares to consensusexpectations of +9-10% yoy. On a Jan/Feb basis, GGR rose +10.6%. Currently,consensus is calling for 1Q GGR growth of +8.2% yoy or +0.6% sequentially. Inorder for GGR to meet 1Q expectations, March must tally at least +5-6% growthor MOP19.2bn, which consensus is closer to ~12%. FY consensus is +9%.

Based on consensus GGR expectations for the big-3 US listed names, LVS(+4.21% sequentially), WYNN (+4.15%) and MPEL (2.18%) imply current +0.6%top-down forecasts are running slightly ahead of more stale bottom-up forecasts.

Overnight, HK names rose 4-6% on the back of this news.

Impact

Feb 2017 GGR grows 17.8%. We heard from several operators that Jan (+3%)was weaker than expected because of a delay in CNY spend which thenaccelerated through the week and into early Feb. Feb (+18%) came as a bigsurprise given weekly data was tracking in the high singles.