Macq-ro insights:Following the new smart money

MNCs have reconfigured the world since 1980, utilising the technology revolutionto slice and dice their supply chains into global value chains (GVC) and creatingglobal oligopolistic competition through consolidation, cross-border M&A.

The new smart money: FDI flows reflect the political networks utilised by MNCsto make longer term investment decisions. In an increasingly politicalised globaleconomy, we regard this as valuable knowledge.

We expect the following FDI trends to persist over the next three years:1) A 40% shrinkage of inward FDI from the 2015 high. UNCTAD estimatesthat 2016 saw a 10-15% decline, pages 2-102) Relative strength in flows to advanced economies versus EMeconomies, Fig 63) Pronounced strength in flows to India versus China, reflecting absolutegrowth and material YoY declines respectively, Fig 3 and Fig 5.

4) Pronounced weakness in FDI flows to commodity-exporting economies,Fig 7The middle-income growth trap: For countries, joining MNCs global valuechains gives an initial sugar-rush of industrialisation, but a mass of supply-chainslices leads to a factory-economy, not to the full range of capabilities that supporta HQ-economy.

US trade policy: it appears that a HQ-economy is politically insufficient for theincoming Trump administration. At a minimum, we expect an industry levelactivist US trade policy. This would reinforce the four FDI trends noted above.

Please also see the 9 January 2017 EM economies & US policy risks.

India: within EM, India appears well positioned with multiple positives, includingfavourable FDI trends and reform progress. Please see from page 11, and thetwo following reports: the 7 November 2016 EM growth struggles & the US Fed,and the 5 December 2016 Eastern Europe, ASEAN & India.

Japan and Russia is a special FDI opportunity. An institutional frameworkenabling slow progress towards a Peace and Economic Cooperation treatywould, we believe, accelerate the economic linkages between the two countries,linkages which are already deepening, detailed inside from page 14. There is acommercial strategic logic of Japanese technology and capital exports inexchange for energy security, diversifying Japan’s energy supplies. Mitsui & Co.

(8031 JP, ￥1,637, Neutral, TP: ￥1,550, Polina Diyachkina) is heavily exposed tothe theme.