The Global Macro Outlook:25bp from the US Fed in December

Going into the US presidential election, the global industrial production recoverywas well entrenched, chart below. The OECD LI for September, released on themorning of the election results, saw another strong improvement, for the seventhmonth in a row, Fig 45. Our 9 November 2016 Macq-ro insights: Trump and thelong durable expansion reiterated our forecast for above trend US real GDPgrowth. Please see pages 26-34 for our 2017 global outlook, 9 pages 31 charts.

The durability of the global upswing is strengthened by: 1) the employmentledrecovery underway in Europe, 2) the healing of private sector balance sheetsin advanced economies, and 3) a second leg up in the US consumptiongrowth story. A fourth factor could be stronger US private investment growthshould a Trump Presidency prioritize tax code reform and deregulation.