Macq-ro insights:Residential investment,globally

Private sector credit growth needs to revive for central banks to end theirextraordinary support. A recovery in home loan demand could be the key driver.Home loans are on average around 40% of total loans.

A good news story: We believe residential investment is around 4% of globalGDP and will grow between 3.5% and 4.0% pa through 2020. The latter issupported by recovery in many advanced economies, whilst financial deepeningand the upgrading of the housing stock underpin growth in EM economies. Thereare exceptions.

Housing is a lead indicator and an important driver of the business cycle, aswell as being intertwined with credit growth and financial stability. Nonetheless,there is a paucity of globally consistent data.

We look at residential investment data and residential price trends across23countries. To our surprise, many countries continue to include residentialinvestment and capital expenditure together in a private investment total. Inthese cases, we present proxy indicators.