首页 - 股票 - 研报 - 趋势策略 - 正文

Taiwan Strategy:What BREXIT means for the TAIEX

来源:麦格理证券 2016-06-30 00:00:00
关注证券之星官方微博:

High volatility for capital markets, weaker NT$.

As the full impact from the UK exiting the EU plays out, capital marketvolatility and more end-demand uncertainty (especially in Europe) mayhamper upside to the TAIEX. A weaker NT$ (stronger US$), high US$exposure for many Taiwan companies, high dividend yields (sustainable), andgrowth should help offset the market uncertainty and lead to better buyingopportunities for several stocks.

Prefer growth stocks with high dividend yields (andreasonable valuations).

Tech: Positive impact from strong US$/weak NT$ (stronger Yen also positivefor industrial automation names) – negative impact due to volatility / potentialdemand implications. We continue to like the market leaders—who sharegood growth outlook and good dividend yields (sustainable with upside). Ourpreferred tech names are: foundry (TSMC), OSAT (ASE), memory OSAT(Powertech), and EMS (Hon Hai and Pegatron). Our least preferred pick withnegative growth rates, and higher Euro exposure is Acer.

Non-tech: Bicycle sector short-term negative impact due to Euro sales(currency) and some Yen costs. Contact lens (St. Shine) short-term positivefor Yen appreciation (still negative long-term due to intensifying competition).

Airlines – neutral impact – some UK / Europe exposure offset by higheroutbound demand due to weaker currency. Textile / home improvement /aerospace / petrochem / EPC – limited impact as most revenue in US$. Littleimpact to domestic sectors: telecom / consumer / e-commerce / logistics /cement / elevators / property. Our top picks (mainly defensive) focussed onhigh dividend yields, domestic, or US$ exposed: Basso, CTCI, AIDC, Kerry TJ.

Our least preferred remain (due to fundamentals / not Brexit impact): St.

Shine, Eclat, Makalot, Feng Tay and Yungtay.

Financials: We believe the likelihood for CBC’s rate cut is now higher afterFed’s more moderate tone and BREXIT. As a result, we expect furtherpressure on banks’ NIM while asset quality could continue to deteriorate. Lifeinsurers could find it difficult to invest because of a flattened yield curve, butthe widening credit spread in Europe could offset the impact, while those withstrong capitalization should be able to do bottom-fishing in both equity andfixed-income markets. Our top picks are E.Sun and CTBC, and our top sell isMega.

Taiwan – range-bound / tech over non-tech.

Our outlook for the Taiwan market remains unchanged since our November 3,2015 report; we expect the market to be range-bound (mostly tradingbetween 8000 – 9000 points) with a 2016 year-end target of 9000 (andNT$33.6 per US$). We also expect tech to outperform non-tech in Taiwan in2016 due to: 1) weak NT$, 2) 2015 tech underperformance, 3) lowervaluations / higher dividend yield, and 4) turned more negative on non-techsubsectors (especially textiles) from 4Q15).





微信
扫描二维码
关注
证券之星微信
APP下载
下载证券之星
郑重声明:以上内容与证券之星立场无关。证券之星发布此内容的目的在于传播更多信息,证券之星对其观点、判断保持中立,不保证该内容(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关内容不对各位读者构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。如对该内容存在异议,或发现违法及不良信息,请发送邮件至jubao@stockstar.com,我们将安排核实处理。如该文标记为算法生成,算法公示请见 网信算备310104345710301240019号。
网站导航 | 公司简介 | 法律声明 | 诚聘英才 | 征稿启事 | 联系我们 | 广告服务 | 举报专区
欢迎访问证券之星!请点此与我们联系 版权所有: Copyright © 1996-2025年