The political consequences of ‘the long grinding cycle’ of 2.5-3.0% global realGDP growth, and 1.0-1.5% global inflation are intensifying. Entitlement programpromises are under pressure. Politicians and policymakers are looking to boostglobal growth, somehow. The private sector is less robust beyond the US,suggesting the ongoing need for cyclical policy support.
From fiscal stimulus to boosting consumption
On 26-27 February 2016, the G20 finance ministers and central bankers met inShanghai amid turbulent markets. The then preferred policy, global fiscal easing,is highly unlikely to happen, page 14. Subsequently, the debate appears to havemoved towards supporting global consumption, pages 3-5.