The Global Macro Outlook:Divergences become chasms

Whilst weak resource prices are battering many countries, consumers benefit. We have beneath consensus 2016 real GDP growth forecasts for Canada, South Africa and Australia, but this month modestly revise up our 2016-17 growth forecasts for China (to 6.7% and 6.5%, from 6.5% and 6.0%, respectively).

Please see pages 9-11 for the latest insights from Colin Hamilton and the Macquarie global commodities team. There has been another round of significant forecast cuts this month.

Supported by large falls in energy prices, service sector-PMIs remain buoyant in advanced economies (85% of employment in two-thirds of the world). Broad money and credit growth are now growing moderately in advanced economies.