比亚迪：Benefit from the outperformance of LFP_股票频道

BYD delivered outstanding auto sales in Dec. NEV sales reached 29K withflagship Han EV shipment exceeded 12k units in Dec. NEV sales volume hadaccounted for 44% of total auto sales in 2020. Looking ahead in 2021E, we stillsee several positive catalysts for BYD from 1) new DM EV model to boost sales;2) cooperation with DiDi to take the lead in the ride-hailing renewable cycle; 3)power battery capacity expansion to support EV sales; and 4) semiconductorsegment spin-off to release business value.

We revised up BYD’s TP by 31% toRMB293.2. Reiterate BUY rating.n NEV sales speeded up in Dec. BYD announced that total auto sales volumeachieved 56K units in Dec, +30% YoY/+4%MoM.In Dec, NEV reached 29K,+120%YoY (NEPV 28K/+157%YoY, NECV 1K/-48%YoY). Delivery of Hancontinued to climb with a total of 12K units in Dec, up 19.6%MoM. The annualcumulative sales volume was 427K units/-7%YoY, in line with CMBIexpectation.n China NEV sales growth to accelerate in 2021E. We expect that the salesvolume of NEV in China will continue to rise at a high speed in 2021E. Given1) the strong NEV pipeline among all major OEMs; 2) the product recognitionfrom retail consumers; 3) the beginning of the first round of replacement cyclein ride-hailing business; 4) the gradual introduction of LFP version for existingmodels, we expect the penetration rate of NEV will exceed marketexpectations. Specifically, we expect the penetration rate of NEV to reach 7%in 2021E, with a corresponding sales volume of 1.92mn units, representing anincrease of 57% (1.66mn NEPV/260K NECV). NEV sales volume to increase 99% in 2021E. We estimate BYD’s NEVmarket share declined to 15% in 2020, due to epidemic impacts and laterelease of new vehicle model. Starting from 2021, BYD will use a brand newlogo and launch several new models including Qin Plus (based on the latestsuper hybrid DM-i platform), Song Pro DM, etc. We expect those measureswill boost its NEV sales. At the to-B end, we expect the cooperation model D1between BYD and DiDi to take lead in the ride-hailing renewable cycle. Weestimate D1 to have 66K units shipment in 2021E.

As we believe theCompany’s NEV sector to maintain strong recovery, we expect BYD's marketshare in NEPV to continue to rebound to 20%, and that will boost NEV salesvolume to 364K units in 2021E, +99%YoY. We think BYD will gradually shiftits business focus to NEV from ICE (61% vs 39% in 2021E), and maintainrelatively stable ICE vehicle sales at 244K units, +3% YoY.