Macro Monday Japan:July,Sept 2016real GDP growth

Key data release: 3Q GDP (Monday)

The first preliminary estimate for July-Sep 2016 Japanese real GDP growth willprovide an indication as to whether there has been an uptick in growthmomentum. We are expecting moderate growth to continue.

Consumption remains the key: As shown below, consumption was a solidcontributor to growth in 2012-13. In advance of the April 2014 increase in theconsumption tax rate from 5% to 8% consumption was particularly strong. Theexpected two-quarter ‘give-back’ lasted a year, and even subsequentlyconsumption has barely contributed to growth.