4Q26 could be key for assessing FY27E earnings

（以下内容从招银国际《4Q26 could be key for assessing FY27E earnings》研报附件原文摘录）
比亚迪(002594)
Maintain BUY.BYD’s3Q26net profit missed our forecast by12%with severaltransitional factors.We view4Q26margin realization as key for assessing itsFY27E earnings trajectory.We also believe BYD’s first-mover globalmanufacturing footprint could help mitigate trade risks.
3Q26earnings miss on ASP,GPM and impairment.BYD’s3Q26revenue expanded13.6%YoY to RMB221.5bn,trailing our prior forecastby3.5%.GPM in3Q26widened by0.6ppts YoY but narrowed by0.9pptsQoQ,lower than our projection by0.4ppts.SG&A and R&D expensedcombined were largely in line.Impairment losses reached RMB1.7bn in3Q26,or about RMB750mn higher than our projection.Consequently,3Q26net profit rose28.1%YoY to RMB10.0bn,falling RMB1.4bn short ofour estimate.Net profit per vehicle rose by1.8%QoQ to about RMB7,600.
4Q26margin realization serves as a key signal for FY27E profitability.We believe that multiple transitional factors distorted3Q26results,including the initial rollouts of a few2nd-generation blade battery models,forex loss and larger-than-expected impairment losses.Margin impactcould be more intangible in4Q26E when the production of new modelsramps up.We view4Q26margin execution as a critical signal forassessing FY27E earnings.
First-mover advantage in European localization.Mass production at itsHungary plant is scheduled for4Q26,making BYD one of the first Chineseautomakers to operate a fully integrated EU manufacturing processencompassing stamping,welding,painting and final assembly.This localfootprint provides structural insulation against upcoming EU import quotasand tariff burdens on Chinese hybrid vehicles.BYD’s Brazil plant,operational since2025,demonstrates strong early execution,with thecompany currently seeking regulatory permits to double annual capacity to600,000units.
Earnings/Valuation.We cut our FY26E net profit forecast by5.2%following3Q26miss,implying a net profit of RMB11.9bn in4Q26E.Wemaintain our FY27E sales volume forecast of5mn units and trim net profitby2.2%to RMB42.2bn,assuming lower impairment and forex losses.Wemaintain our BUY rating but cut H-share target price from HK$125toHK$109,based on20x(prior22x)our revised FY27E EPS to reflectpersisting sector headwinds.We cut A-share target price from RMB125toRMB108based on YTD AH premium of17%.Key risks include lower salesvolume margins than we expect,as well as a sector de-rating.