首页 - 股票 - 研报 - 趋势策略 - 正文

Fears about trade:Areas of tension,macro sensitivities/scenarios,historical lessons,and equity trading strategies

关注证券之星官方微博:

1. Why is trade important? It made up 55%/40% ofglobal/China’s GDP last year. US trade relations withChina have deepened since the 2000s. A ‘trade war’ willalso impact global growth and geopolitics, in our view.

2. Gauging the frictions? China is subject to a 3% tariff,the highest among major US trading partners (1.5% onaverage), and accounted for one-third of all US antidumpingcases since 2015.

3. What will the US do? Tariffs, dumping charges, FXmanipulator, and border taxes are commonly-discussedmeasures but with different likelihood and implications.

Our economists estimate that a 45% tariff on Chineseimports could directly hit China’s nominal GDP by 0.6%.

What could be affected? Chinese 4. industries whichoften receive US trade complaints, with high tradeimbalances and low tariff rates—metals, chemicals,electronics, textile, furniture—are likely targets.

5. FX manipulator label? Limited immediate impact butwas commonly used in trade/FX negotiations as shownby Asian countries’ experiences in the 80s/90s.

6. Lessons from Japan in the 80s? Tariffs had modestimpact until the Plaza Accord was signed, whichushered in manufacturing offshoring, supply-chainupgrade, and export diversification for Japanese firms.

7. Beijing’s policy responses? Selling US treasuries,retaliatory tariffs, weaker Rmb, administrative measureson travel/education, stricter anti-trust enforcement, andODI/M&A restrictions are possible options.

8. Equity implications? Modest revenue impact (US sales~1%) but the tail risk is indiscriminately priced in amongUS-exposed themes: We screen for firms with USassets, hedged by exporters and ODMs/OEMs.





微信
扫描二维码
关注
证券之星微信
APP下载
下载证券之星
郑重声明:以上内容与证券之星立场无关。证券之星发布此内容的目的在于传播更多信息,证券之星对其观点、判断保持中立,不保证该内容(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关内容不对各位读者构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。如对该内容存在异议,或发现违法及不良信息,请发送邮件至jubao@stockstar.com,我们将安排核实处理。
网站导航 | 公司简介 | 法律声明 | 诚聘英才 | 征稿启事 | 联系我们 | 广告服务 | 举报专区
欢迎访问证券之星!请点此与我们联系 版权所有: Copyright © 1996-