3Q23 earnings surged 120-200% YoY; Strong gas trucks sales continue to be key driver

（以下内容从招银国际《3Q23 earnings surged 120-200% YoY; Strong gas trucks sales continue to be key driver》研报附件原文摘录）
潍柴动力(000338)
Over the weekend, Weichai pre-announced that net profit in 3Q23 is expectedto surge 120-200% YoY to RMB2.03-2.77bn, which is better than ourexpectation. The impressive 3Q23 earnings boosted the net profit in 9M23 upby 80-100% YoY. We believe the strong growth in 3Q was driven by natural gastrucks and export. We maintain our positive stance on Weichai as the decline inLNG price will continue to boost sales of LNG trucks/engines, where Weichaihas strong presence. We revise up our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecasts by17%/9%/8%, largely due to higher engines sales volume assumptions. Werevise up our SOTP-based TPs for Weichai A/H to RMB14.7/HK$16.1. ReiterateBUY.
Weichai’s engine sales outpaced industry in 8M23. Weichai's multicylinder sales (including HDTs and other large-size engines) grew 25% YoYto ~460k units in 8M23, much better than the industry average of 6%,according to CICEIA. The market share reached ~17% in 8M23, up 2.6pptYoY.
HDT industry sales volume +55% YoY in Sep. According to thepreliminary data from Cvworld, China HDT industry sales volume in Sep(including export) grew 55% YoY to 80k units, driven by strong demand fornatural gas trucks and export. In 9M23, China HDT sales volume (includingexport) grew 32% YoY to ~690k units.
Natural gas HDT accounted for 31% of total HDT sales in Sep. The latestLNG price declined 40%+ from the peak in late 2022, while the diesel pricedropped <20% during the period. Sales of natural gas HDT therefore hashad a strong run since early this year, with the percentage of total HDT salesrising from 7% in Dec 2022 to 31% in Sep 2023. We believe the currentprice difference will continue to boost the sales of LNG trucks given thelower operating cost to truck owners. Weichai will continue to be a keybeneficiary as we estimate Weichai has >50% market share in the HDT gasengine sector.
Risk factors: 1) weakness in engine export; 2) increase in component cost;and 3) weaker-than-expected new business growth.