Full-year guidance unchanged_股票频道

（以下内容从招银国际《Full-year guidance unchanged》研报附件原文摘录）
伊利股份(600887)
We hosted a NDR with Yili management to obtain follow-up post the company’sinvestor day on 14th Jul and 2Q operational update. Overall, Yili maintained itsinitial guidance of a HSD top line growth with a 0.3pp uptake in net margins forthe year. On a sequential basis, 2Q sales has further accelerated from that of1Q. This consists of drivers such as QoQ improvement in UHT milk, especiallythat of high-end UHT milk, double-digit growth in adult formula, growth in lowtemp SKUs (despite a tough comp) and a stable cheese momentum over 2Bchannel. Separately, Yili reaffirmed that, albeit deflating raw material prices,gross margins will likely remain stable, when reasonable discounts to stimulateretail sales likely offset the savings. In other words, any improvement inprofitability will be solely driven by operation cost savings. Concerning theremainder of the year, Yili remains upbeat and see scope for further recovery totake place, thanks to a high debut density from brands like Satine andAmbrosial. While we remain lukewarm on the dairy segment from a risk-rewardperspective, we think Yili is a relative outperformer among its peers thanks toits operation scales, more frequent new launches and above-industry milkformula growth. We are buy-rated.
Raw material cost impact to GPM. Despite a small, or a LSD drop in rawmilk costs, Yili expects a stable GPM for 2023E as the merit will likely beoffset by a small increase in other material costs such as sugar, packagingmaterials, not to mention retail discounts. Mix upgrade will be the only drivingforce to boost GPM and financially we look for a 0.2-0.3pp hike over 2023-25E.
Earnings assumptions/ changes. We largely maintain our 2023/24Eestimates. For 2023E, we continue to assume 1) a 5.5%/ 20%/ 20% liquidmilk/ low-temp dairy/ IMF sales growth YoY, respectively. These underpin a7.7% 3-year revenue CAGR between 2022-25E. Combined with the GPMassumptions above, our net margins for 2023-25E are set at 8.0%/ 8.3%/8.7%. Overall our forecasts largely tally with management’s expectation onrevenue/ pre-tax profits of RMB 135.5bn/RMB 12.5bn. We also introducedour 2025E forecasts.
Valuation. Our new TP is based on an updated 24.0x (from previously25.0x) end-23E PE, which still benchmarks to its 5-year average. Comparingto Mengniu (2319HK, Buy), which we value at -1sd below average, weassign a higher target multiple to Yili to reflects the latter’s stronger IMFbusiness outlook in the near term.