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美的集团:Consistent outperformance by great strategy

来源:招银国际 2019-11-07 00:00:00
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A solid 3Q19for Midea, consists of 1) remarkable market shares gain in A.C., 2)consumer electronic segment recovery, and 3) favorable input costs and FX rate.Thanks to positive outlook in 2H19E, we maintain BUY and raised TP to RMB75.33, based on 18x FY20E P/E (from 16x), or 1.3x PEG (vs peers’ avg. of 1.8x).n 3Q19net profit up 23%, solid beat. Midea’s net profit att. increased by 23%YoY, 10% above BBG’s est., backed by 6% YoY sales growth, noted thatconsolidation of Little Swan accounted for ~4% NP att. growth. GP marginexpanded by 0.7ppt, in our view, helped by: 1) RMB depreciation, 2) softeningraw material prices and 3) greater sales from high-end products series (e.g.COLMO, Midea PRO, etc.). Opex , as % of total sales also recorded a savingof 0.4ppt, thanks to the company’s rigid costs control strategy.n A.C sales slowed down, consumer electronics quicken up, robotics andautomation stabilized. Even though A.C. sales growth slowed down to just~5% in 3Q19(vs 12% in 1H19), it was still far better than the industry, whereboth volume and ASP had fallen by ~3% and ~5% (offline)/ ~10% (online),according to China IOL and A.V.C., implying solid market shares gain, thanksto successful new product launches in FY19E. Sales growth of consumerelectronics in 3Q19accelerated to ~10% (vs 6% in 1H19), driven mostly bystrong recovery of washing machines, by ~12% (vs 6% in 1H19) and smallappliances, by 13% (vs low single digit in 1H19), plus the improved exportssales (helped by favorable FX). Sales growth of robotic and automation wasa small negative in 3Q19(vs -4% in 1H19), on track to resume growth, whileEBIT margin also rose to 4.3% (vs 3.1% last year), by effective costs control.n Remains confident on sales growth and margin expansions in 2H19E.The Company maintained its targets of a 5-10% sales growth in FY19E, a mildGP margin expansion and a stable opex ratio. It also expect online sales toaccounted for ~35% of total retail sales (CMBI est. ~38% of group sales),implying a 20%+ YoY E-commerce sales growth. Moreover, for offline, thecompany aims to open more home decoration (now at ~150), multi-category(targeting ~1,000, now at ~500) and flagship stores (targeting ~1,900).n Maintain BUY and raised TP to RMB 75.33(27% upside). We lifted FY19E/20E/ 21E’s net profit by 2.6%/ 3.1%/ 2.8%, to factor in: 1) favorable input costsand currency rate and 3) greater efficiency gain. Our new TP is based on 18xFY20E P/E (lifted from 16x FY20E, thanks to picked up in NP growth). Thecounter now trades at 16x/ 14x FY19E/ 20E P/E or 1.0x 3years PEG.





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