首页 - 股票 - 研报 - 公司研究 - 正文

Zoomlion (A):Long and winding recovery;credit risk priced in;reinstate at Neutral

关注证券之星官方微博:

We remove the Not Rated designation from Zoomlion. We have a Neutralrating on Zoomlion A/H with a 12m TP of Rmb4.8/HKD3.0, implying 4/5%upside. We expect the company’s concrete/crane machinery to record adecline of -21%/-26% yoy in 2016 before recovering to 2%/8% growth in2017 due to their late-cycle nature and less favorable exposure to propertyconstruction which we expect to normalize into 2016 year-end. We remainpositive on Zoomlion’s environmental growth, supported by its balancesheet-driven investment business and agricultural machinery gross marginexpansion as the company penetrates higher-end markets.

With Zoomlion A/H’s 12-m fwd P/B at 0.9/0.5x, both 1-STD below historicalaverage of 1.6/1.2x despite recovering earnings, we see market’s biggestconcern still on Zoomlion’s Rmb58bn on/off-balance sheet receivable riskvs. equity at Rmb38bn. However, if we assume that the market valuesZoomlion at mid-cycle P/B after write-off, the current A/H valuation implies31%/42% more provision on Zoomlion’s construction machinery (CM)receivable and inventory, or 52%/69% default rate with a 40% salvagevalue on defaulted machines. With 46% of Zoomlion’s CM receivable overtwo years aging, overdue for more than 1 year or off balance sheet, we seeits credit risk as fairly priced in and reinstate Zoomlion A/H at Neutral.

We revise our 2016E/17E/18E EPS from Rmb0.01/0.03/0.05 to Rmb-0.05/+0.01/+0.08 on updated revenue assumptions, severance fee in2016/17E given ongoing capacity cuts, and updated forex forecasts.





微信
扫描二维码
关注
证券之星微信
APP下载
相关股票:
好投资评级:
好价格评级:
证券之星估值分析提示中联重科盈利能力良好,未来营收成长性优秀。综合基本面各维度看,股价偏低。 更多>>
下载证券之星
郑重声明:以上内容与证券之星立场无关。证券之星发布此内容的目的在于传播更多信息,证券之星对其观点、判断保持中立,不保证该内容(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关内容不对各位读者构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。如对该内容存在异议,或发现违法及不良信息,请发送邮件至jubao@stockstar.com,我们将安排核实处理。
网站导航 | 公司简介 | 法律声明 | 诚聘英才 | 征稿启事 | 联系我们 | 广告服务 | 举报专区
欢迎访问证券之星!请点此与我们联系 版权所有: Copyright © 1996-