3Q rev/np +13%/16%; mixed near-term outlook

（以下内容从招银国际《3Q rev/np +13%/16%; mixed near-term outlook》研报附件原文摘录）
贵州茅台(600519)
3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentumsequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed intandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H. The 17% 9M revenue growth still largelytracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenuegrowth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, thelowest we note since 3Q20. In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand withdistributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, whenconsumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment toconsume has been languishing. On the contrary, as a positive note, pricefluctuations for the flagship Feitian remained in-range and wholesale price (sealcase) settled at around RMB2,900 per bottle, about RMB100 lower than whatwe saw last month. These in aggregate put together a relatively mixed nearterm outlook for Moutai, in our view. That said, in the medium term, we are stillhopeful of seeing Moutai’s brand premium, product scarcity and efforts indiversification (crossovers with other F&B brands) could shield the companyfrom exposing to any risk of malignant pricing and irrational destocking,especially when the odds of a prolonged demand recovery has become morealarming.
Sales mix. 3Q/9M sales revenue recorded RMB33.5bn/102.9bn,+13.1%/+18.3% YoY. Moutai spirit sales in 3Q grew +15% YoY/ +10% QoQto RMB27.9bn, when sales contribution was sequentially flattish at 83.5%.Direct channel sales of the quarter inflated +35% YoY/ +9% QoQ toRMB14.8bn, with "iMoutai" platform showing major growth at +37%YoY/+25 QoQ, contributing RMB5.5bn revenue. Meanwhile, wholesalechannel's revenue was RMB18.7bn, up + 2% YoY/+10% QoQ
Cashflows. OCF of the quarter grew +432% YoY to RMB50bn, thanks to aRMB42bn cash received from sales activity. Cash on hand raised toRMB159.3bn with a RMB9.6bn net increase. These were in line with ahigher contract liability which went up by RMB4.1bn in the quarter to RMB11.4 bn.
Earnings change. We moderately trim our 2023-25E revenue and net profitby-0.9% to -2.9%/ -1.4% to -3.5% to reflect the results.
Valuation. Our TP is based on an updated 39.0x (from previously 41.0x)end-23E P/E, which still represents long-term average since 2019. Ourmethodology reflects our relative optimism (vis-a-vis other F&B diversifiedof which target multiples are based on -1sd below long term average) onMoutai that it could outperform its peers thanks to its brand premium andproduct scarcity.