2Q23E earnings to grow 30-65%; recovery story intact_股票频道

（以下内容从招银国际《2Q23E earnings to grow 30-65%; recovery story intact》研报附件原文摘录）
潍柴动力(000338)
Weichai pre-announced over the weekend that 1H23 net profit is expected to grow50-70% YoY to RMB3.59-4.07bn, representing 50-57% of our full year profit forecast.This implies net profit of RMB1.73-2.21bn (up 30-65% YoY) in 2Q23E, with the highend slightly better than our expectation. We continue to like Weichai’s recovery storyas: (1) the significant decline in LNG price will continue to boost the sales of LNGtrucks/engines, where Weichai has strong presence on; (2) easing supply chainpressure will help KION achieve margin recovery; (3) the continuous growth ofengines for agricultural machinery and HDT through rising penetration in LOVOL andSinotruk (3808 HK, BUY) is on good track. We maintain our SOTP-based TPs forWeichai A/H of RMB13.8/HK$15.8. Maintain BUY.
Weichai’s engine sales continued to outpace industry in 5M23. According toCICEIA, Weichai's multi-cylinder sales (HDT and other engines) grew 26% YoYto 303k units in 5M23 (vs the industry average of 8%), with a market share of~16%.
HDT Industry: Sales volume +31% YoY in Jun. According to the preliminarydata from Cvworld, China HDT industry sales volume in Jun (including export)grew 31% YoY to 72k units, driven by strong demand for gas-fuelled trucks(helped by the decline in LNG price) and export. In 1H23, China HDT salesvolume grew 25% YoY to 474k units, representing 57% of our full year forecastof 829k units (+23% YoY).
Decline in LNG price positive to Weichai. LNG price in late Jun has declined40%+ from the peak in Dec 2022. We believe it will continue to boost the salesof LNG trucks given the lower operating cost to truck owners. We expect Weichaito be a key beneficiary as we estimate Weichai has >40% market share in HDTgas engine. Besides, Shaanxi Heavy-duty Motor, subsidiary of Weichai, is a keyplayer in gas-fuelled HDT segment.
Risk factors: (1) weakness in engine demand; (2) increase in component cost;and (3) new business growth below expectations