关注证券之星官方微博:

SZI:First mover in the Big Bay Area

2017-05-19 00:00:00 来源:农银国际证券
农银国际证券 更多文章>>

Benefiting fromthe Big Bay Area (BBA) development.As ofDec 2016, SZI has a total landbank of 7.86mn sqm, of which 34% waslocated in Shenzhen and 15% in Huizhou. We believe the BBA development should benefit this Shenzhen-oriented SOE more than its peers without an SOE background. Backedby its parent company Shumyip Group, SZI has managed to secure cheap land resources since 2013. In Dec 2016, SZI acquired a project in Qianhai, which is touted as Shenzhen’s next CBD, fromits sister company SZ International (152 HK). Qianhai will be one of the core centersof BBA. Solid margin improvement. In 2016, SZI’s gross profit margin(GPM)increased 4.1ppt YoY to 38.7%, of which GPMof its property development business rose 6.7ppt YoY to 41.3%. Projects in Shenzhen had the highest GPMat 49.9%, followed by 36.1% in other tier-1regions, 31.8% for tier-2 and 11.0%for tier-3/4 areas. We believe marginsshould improve further in 2017 on increased contribution from SZandturnaround in lower-tier cities. Office sales are not impacted by home purchase restriction(HPR). SZI generated significant amount of presales from offices. As non-residential products are not subjected to HPR, SZI’s presale hasremainedstrong so far in 2017. In 1Q17, SZI’s presalegrew 32%YoY to RMB6.9bn, driven by a 27%YoY ASP hike and 4%YoY increase in GFA. In particular, SZI completed an enbloc saleof the office tower in Tanglang project at RMB5bn in Feb 2017, reflecting robust corporate demand for office space. Maintain BUY withrevisedTP of HK$3.80.For 2017, SZI set a presalestarget of RMB19.1bn (+0% YoY comparedto 2016 presale) despite increasedsaleable resources of RMB31bn (+7%YoY). This may indicate SZI’s prudent view on Shenzhen market as a result of recent policy tightening. We factor in the lower-than-expected presales target and cut our NAV forecast to HK$9.46 (from HK$10.13). We reduceour TP to HK$3.80 (from HK$4.10), still based on an unchanged 60% discount to NAV.While SZI’s presales growth islikelyto be slower than peers, the Group differentiates itself from peers by its highmarginsand steady profit growth. Maintain BUY. Risk factors: 1) Rising land cost in tier-1 cities; 2) Further policy tightening in SZ; 3) Delays in asset injections from parents; 4) Execution risks in urban redevelopment projects





相关附件

证券之星网app

上证指数 最新: 3378.65 涨跌幅: 0.25%

热点推荐

郑重声明:以上内容与证券之星立场无关。证券之星发布此内容的目的在于传播更多信息,证券之星对其观点、判断保持中立,不保证该内容(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关内容不对各位读者构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。